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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark Marcellus who wrote (74187)	6/18/2000 10:38:00 AM
From: The Verve	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 152472

Mark, What is it about Piecyk's analysis that bothers you so much? You don't feel comfortable with his 2 assumptions that in 10 years 85% of all cell phones and connected appliances will be CDMA based? Or is 2 billion appliances too aggressive for you? Or do you feel he wasn't correct in assuming that Q will receive royalties on those 2 billion appliances? How would you feel about his analysis if it turns out by 2010, there are FOUR billion appliances with CDMA 'inside', ASP's are strong, and Q owns 60% of the ASIC market? Peicyk's analysis didn't factor in Q's cash flow from their ASIC division (assuming they don't jettison the division for some odd reason) It was based on royalties only. Just where is it you disagree? Verve

To: Mark Marcellus who wrote (74187)	6/18/2000 11:34:00 AM
From: John Rieman	Respond to of 152472

Two years until wireless subs hit 1 billion.............. wirelesstoday.com By the third quarter of 2002, the number of worldwide wireless subscribers will reach the 1 billion mark, with a worldwide penetration rate of almost 17 percent, according to Cahners In-Stat Group, a high- tech market research firm in Scottsdale, Ariz. Subscribers are forecast to increase to approximately 1.87 billion by the fourth quarter of 2004. This rapid growth in the number of wireless subscribers will occur in part because of third generation (3G) services. The proliferation of 3G services in the next several years will cause a drop in airtime pricing, which should lead to an increase in the number of wireless subscribers. "If you look at usage patterns developing, even with something as archaic as SMS in Europe, data usage is passing voice," says Ray Jodoin, industry analyst for global wireless service at Cahners In-Stat Group. "Voice will be something you give people for free, but you have a minimum contract for the phone for data. People will be using the phone for Web access and e-commerce." According to the In-Stat study, Cellular Market Goes Ballistic - Wireless Subscriber Forecast, wireless handsets and appliances will become the preferred method of accessing the Worldwide Web. "People don?t leave their homes without phones," Jodoin says. "They are becoming like wristwatches. That is why the wireless phone will become one of the key means of accessing the Web." The study finds that wireless subscriber growth rates in industrialized countries will continue at a very steady, controlled rate. The U.S. subscriber base is forecast to growth at an average rate of 16.8 million subscribers per year during the next five years. Growth in Western Europe is expected to soar, and growth in emerging nations like Brazil, China and Eastern Europe is accelerating rapidly. "The Europeans have already discovered the Polaroid formula," Jodoin says. "Polaroid gave away the cameras, and then sold the film. In Western Europe, customers don't have to pay for access to the messaging service. They pay per message for the short messaging service. 100 percent of the subscriber base is at least able to try it out." Of all countries, 3G is expected to emerge in Japan first. The reason is that wireless carriers are out of spectrum in Japan, and need a method of improving services. The study also finds that as subscriber rates increase, the decline of analog services will continue. In the United States, digital equipment is expected to enjoy a 68 percent market share this year.

To: Mark Marcellus who wrote (74187)	6/18/2000 11:59:00 AM
From: Jon Koplik	Respond to of 152472

Mark - re : Walter Piecyk - I do (sort of) agree with you on some of your criticisms, but ... I look back on the sky-high share target that Mr. Piecyk set as follows : (As of December 1999) ... now that we really, really know about CDMA and all of the things that CDMA will lead to (and, adoption of / resistance to ... CDMA is more clearly quantified), NOW ... We can dare to sit down and crank out some "pie (piecyk ?) in the sky" numbers. I think it would have been premature to have cranked out the numbers earlier than late 1999. Jon.

To: Mark Marcellus who wrote (74187)	6/18/2000 2:28:00 PM
From: waverider	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Hmm...perhaps we should get something else straight: >>>It is a good thing that Qualcomm has a lot of cash, because they'd have a great deal of trouble floating a secondary or even a debt offering right now, because their credibility is low.<<< Would you please explain HOW Qualcomm has LOST credibility? Because the price of the stock has gone down? Come on. The fundamentals and the technological advances are better now than in December. What have they done to lose credibility? >>>Let's face it, Qualcomm the company has had a tough three months. Nothing wrong with that, every business has its ups and downs, and the 12 months before that were pretty spectacular.<<< Again, you seem to be focusing on stock price. Would you please discuss the how Qualcomm has had a "tough three months...as a company"? >>>The only thing that Qualcomm employees have to do to repair the damage Snyder has done, is their jobs.<<< People are losing their jobs at Qualcomm? Now that is news. Where did you get that? I agree with you analysis of the analyst's food fight, but perhaps you are equating the short term price action of a stock to the health of a company a wee bit much. <H>