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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tekboy who wrote (26549)	6/20/2000 12:43:00 AM
From: kumar	Respond to of 54805

<<up about 75% since my infamous buy recommendation at the end of March. >> I presume, u "bought and held" ? :-)

To: tekboy who wrote (26549)	6/20/2000 10:23:00 AM
From: Apollo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

INTC vs. AMD AMD's $9 pop beat Intel's $10 on a percentage basis, and it's now up about 75% since my infamous buy recommendation at the end of March. Monkey, shmonkey, that spanks our gorillas quite handily... First of all, let me say that I owned AMD in the mid-90s, and enjoyed a nice profit. I'm currently long INTC. As a non-AMD-O'phile, my general sense of things is that AMD seems to be on a roll. They are competing head-on with INTC in the lower end, and creeping into the middle end of the PC-microprocessor market. INTC mavens have warned that AMD doesn't have the FAB capacity to meet ever greater demands on AMD's apparently very good microprocessor offerings. But to date, AMD has not yet had product shortages of which I am aware. In fact, INTC has come up short in production of sufficient quantities on some of its product offerings, and as I posted earlier is working double-time to vastly increase its already world-leading edge in FAB capacity. INTC mavens also warn that with rising interest rates, retail PC demand may be curtailed......and this will hurt AMD more than INTC since the Silverback has diversified into servers, cell phones, networking chips, etc. They warn that AMD is entirely dependent on the PC microprocessor retail market. This latter point may be the sharp distinction between INTC's silverback position and AMD's chimp position. The other distinction is that INTC can play the price-cut game and blow out AMD's profit margins, as they have done in the past. Right now, everyone is rolling in dough and business, and price margins have not eroded. Too much business for everyone. It's a great time to be a semiconductor manufacturer. Also, letting AMD have 15% of the market share has been enough to keep away the DOJ. I just hope INTC management doesn't get complacent like Boeing; in the past 12 months, Airbus has sold more planes than Boeing for the very first time. What was a field with just one worldwide, unchallenged dominant manufacturer of planes (Boeing),.... has now become a 2-horse race. Stupid, stupid, stupid Boeing, responsible for the largest niche of export $ to the USA, let Airbus get into the Game. Apparently Boeing's management never read "Only the Paranoid Survive". Apollo

To: tekboy who wrote (26549)	6/20/2000 5:47:00 PM
From: gdichaz	Respond to of 54805

tekboy: Sometimes terminology and labels get in the way of looking coldly (or otherwise) at companies. If you look at Intel as a king then AMD is a prince. LindyBill long ago suggested that Intel may be more of a king than a gorilla. Also to try to understand AMD it is essential to look at its differences from INTC not its similarities. Once again, Mike Buckley's ideas are helpful. While Intel may or may not be a gorilla in some areas, it is not by any means a gorilla in the non PC area. There is a halo effect that is dangerous in evaluating gorillas outside their areas of clear "gorillaness so to speak" - the weaknesses of Microsoft once away from the desktop and servers is instructive in this. This is most evident in wireless, where Microsoft is an also ran. AMD has a major position in flash memory which is a major growth area. This helps explain AMD's recent performance, even though Intel is a competitor to some extent. But Intel has no where near the dominant postition in flash memory that it has in its mainline chips. Just a couple of thoughts. Best. Cha2