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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (27107)	6/20/2000 8:21:00 PM
From: drsvelte	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 68311

Cramer (FWIW) thought the call went well... "Oracle is (ORCL:Nasdaq - news - boards) doing a great great job on the call. While we don't think the stock jumps right back to 88, it seems fine. Business is terrific. But it is not a revenue explosion, so there will be some naysayers. We foresee no downgrades though, and lots of reiterations of buys. Solid job." More Briefing.... Oracle (ORCL) 86 1/32: The dictionary definition of the word oracle is "one that delivers highly regarded and influential pronouncements." Oracle the company may have done just that in delivering Q4 earnings of $0.31... The headline earnings figure came in six cents above the consensus estimate and four cents above the whisper number... For the year, ORCL earned $0.69... However, stock coming under some pressure in early after hours trading (down about 3 points), as ORCL's revenue number of $3.37 bln fell shy of some estimates (see earlier story stock) - not to mention whisper number of $3.5 bln, plus... Softer revenues not due to applications business, as applications software sales surged 61% to $447 mln... Within this area, CRM sales soared 161%... Oracle CEO Ellison noted that ``Applications Release 11i -- the Oracle e-Business suite -- hurdled us into the number one position in the applications software business." Where sales were a little sluggish was in the database business, which saw a year/year increase of 12%... Street had been expecting growth of at least 20%... But overall revenue miss unlikely to result in any downward earnings revisions, given much stronger than expected Q4 operating margins... Street had been looking for margins to improve to the 36% area for the quarter... Well they came in at 41.1%, a 13.7% jump from year-ago levels... In fact, Briefing.com expects street to start upping its FY01 estimate... Current consensus for FY01 is $0.81... Whether today's strong earnings report and (likely) subsequent earnings upgrades will be enough to reverse the post-announcement sell-off is the big question... Using Tuesday's closing price, ORCL trading at 125x trailing earnings, 106x projected FY01 earnings and 72.5x trailing 12-mo sales... If stock fails to climb, ORCL could be foreshadowing another quarter of strong tech earnings with little benefit to stock prices - not exactly the influence many tech traders were hoping for. Robert Walberg, Briefing.com

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (27107)	6/21/2000 12:37:00 AM
From: Suresh	Respond to of 68311

Hi Harry, ORCL conference call was bullish. Going forward they think that they can push the margin to 40% and they are guiding DB revenue growth around 20%. They did say that their sales people used to sandbag DB sales from next Q's in previous quarters since the sales area was constantly being changed. It is not the case anymore so they do expect an accelaration in the growth. Some of the +ves: 1) Strong application business: Larry couldn't contain himself. He cited wins against ITWO. He claims that they are beating the heck out of SAP, ITWO, ARBA and SEBL. If one goes by his outlook, we need to go out and buy ORCL and short the other 4. He cited some big implementations where they replaced SAP and ITWO implementations with their implementation. 2) Strong pipeline 3) Consulting business BtoB is 1.5 4) Steve Jobs must be rubbing on Larry. Larry is getting better and better with each CC. -Ve's: 1) They are going to move to high volume low price model (in the current Q, 5Mil+ deals were 18% of revenue compared to 24% in last Q)... makes me wonder if most of the big installations are already in place. 2) Consulting BtoB is 1.5 yet they don't anticipate hiring more engineers... It beats me if they are still letting all those engineers sit idle now. 3) They predict such high sales growth and yet they talk about head count (sales/marketing) depending on the revenue growth. However they do say that this will not grow at the same rate as revenue but slowly. Overall the tone was bullish. Among analysts, I could sense mixed reaction. At present I still have my short position but still undecided about the position. Most possibly I will be covering the short if they open 85+ or use a buy stop if they open it below 85. I think there are better targets to short than ORCL.... Oh regarding valuation, I think their price is out of this world.. but what else is cheap in this market which has decent growth ? Later, Suresh