To: Rande Is who wrote (28085 ) 6/21/2000 2:04:00 AM From: American Spirit Respond to of 57584
From FORBES - "Get 'Em While They're Cold" - spoofy tone but he's serious. On May 17 last year I recommended ten stocks* to buy. Ten months later the portfolio was up 125%, hoisted on such big shoulders as Cisco, JDS Uniphase, Broadcom and Inktomi. Then word of Lester Thurow's new do got out--and tech stocks dived. As of this writing the portfolio is up a mere 47%. That gives an annual return of 43%. Not bad. But let's scupper it and start a new one. We'll call this one the Robert Shiller Account, named after that other marvelous economist of the hour, that sour donkey at Yale who hustles the term "irrational exuberance" and is appearing on every newspaper page, spreading doom and Dow 6000. What I failed to do with Thurow is what I'll do with Shiller--use him as a 180-degree compass. If Shiller says stocks are going down, it's a sure sign they're going up. Further, if he thinks technology a pile of dog manure, it's sure to be chocolate ice cream. So here is our new 180 Degrees of Robert Shiller Account (with Shilleresque commentary, as he might give it): ? Webvan. Hyped to the moon, it can never make money; its FedEx-type idea of same-day delivery is a pipe dream; ? Microsoft. Broken beyond repair by DOJ and network computers; ? AT&T. Old Economy circuit-switched bozos; ? WorldCom. Has run completely out of financial engineering tricks; ? Covad. Dead meat when the Baby Bells see what it's doing; ? Red Hat. Nobody will ever make money off of this neo-hippie/commie software movement called Linux; ? Silicon Valley Bank. As IPOs shrivel, so, too, will the SVB share price; ? Xerox. Top corporate immune system in America; it kills any good idea; ? Novell. Squeezed between NT and a CEO too nerdy for the top job. Time to buy, buy, buy!