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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Apollo who wrote (26691)	6/22/2000 10:11:00 PM
From: Seeker of Truth	Respond to of 54805

I'm under the impression that Nokia thinks they don't need QCOM's patents. That's what they have said. Presumably if they plan on a large market share in CDMA in 18 months then they will ignore the patents and simply use the technology. QCOM will then show them a thing or two in court. The managers of Nokia don't look that bright to me.

To: Apollo who wrote (26691)	6/22/2000 11:18:00 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Stan, I would first like to hear from BB and Merlin, as to what they think about TMF Mycroft, who waxes quite passionately about Nokia. Passionate indeed. With all his/her ranting and raving about how wonderful TMF is, s/he forgot that the Fool has from day one fostered dispassionate, unemotional approaches to investing. I don't know anything about TMF Mycroft, but that piece doesn't give lend a lot of credibility for the simple reason that almost everything is expressed in fairly extreme superlatives justifying his/her positive feelings about his/her investment. The only negative thing said about the company has to do with the unwillingness to buy into the CDMA story and that issue was turned from the negative to the positive by the CEO's statement about soon owning 30% of the CDMA handset market. But let's put aside the main thrust of the piece that Nokia will be a terrific investment. There are many terrific investment possibilities so that's no big deal. Instead, let's focus on the impact Nokia has on Qualcomm. 1) If Nokia does capture such a high percentage of the CDMA-based handset market, I guess that won't be too bad for Qualcomm, huh. 2) When TMF Mycroft says that Nokia always does best by building their own business internally, that's gonna be pretty tuff to do without buying CDMA chipsets, huh. --Mike Buckley

To: Apollo who wrote (26691)	6/23/2000 1:09:00 AM
From: shamsaee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

NOk can't buy QCOM out unless it is a friendly merger which most likely will be rejected by the DOJ and every one else in the industry.This would make the ultimate monopoly in any industry.So now we looking at the CEO statement of 30% cdma within 18 months,which to me is just smoke unless they have a deal with qcom and that would still make it questionable.Unfortunately I don't see any deal made Due to the fact that Nokia track record indicates they think they can do it on their own.As IJ stated in cc call that they expect legal battles down the line,so a major lawsuits in the next 18 months is the most likely scenario, which should follow the script of previous legal battles qcom has been through. In the mean time we are better off waiting for q3 report and ignore cyberspace analysts and rumor mongers.

To: Apollo who wrote (26691)	6/23/2000 1:53:00 AM
From: Uncle Frank	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

>> TMF Mycroft states "In the CNBC Interview with Maria B. last Friday, Nokia's CEO Jorma stated that he will in 18 months have a similar market share in CDMA phones as he does in all the other areas. This is the best news that my old tired ears could hear....We are now the 800-pound Gorilla in the wireless field." Incredible. Mycroft apparently feels that an off the wall comment from Jorma means the deed is done. I'd recommend s/he watch cnbc for a few months to observe the long string of failing CEOs shamelessly over-promoting implausible prospects of success for their companies (Armstrong comes to mind). I'd also suggest s/he rtfm, as gaining 30% share of the cdma handset business would not change NOK's status from King to Gorilla. Sounds like Mycroft may be a pseudonym for Tero <gg>. uf

To: Apollo who wrote (26691)	6/23/2000 8:57:00 AM
From: Bruce Brown	Respond to of 54805

I would first like to hear from BB and Merlin, as to what they think about TMF Mycroft, who waxes quite passionately about Nokia. All I know about Mycroft is that he is a recent hire at the Fool. This week or last week - I'm not quite sure. His new job is to cruise the message boards and help answer questions, etc... . I don't believe he has been hired to do any financial or analytical writing for them at this point. The Fool likes to mix their staff with home grown talent as well as outside talent. I believe Mycroft has been a frequent on the Nokia and the Rule Maker boards (where Nokia was a recent addition to the Rule Maker portfolio). At times I follow the Qualcomm thread at the Fool, but based on the amount of traffic there, I only skim a few posts every week so I don't know exactly what goes on there all the time. I have always tried to present the view from the gorilla gaming point, but there are thousands that follow the board and only a handful that have read The Gorilla Game. Spooning teaspoons of salt from the ocean is not my idea of a good time. The Phil Fisher analysis is a common thing seen at the Fool for various stocks as those who've read the book seem to enjoy what they've read and applying it to their favorite companies. I haven't read the book, so cannot comment. Regardless, there are some very important criteria that we all know and follow which must be inserted when considering the gorilla games and royalty games. No need to mention that here. Mike mentioned that I have a lot of patience in regards to the sister/brother/cousin thread over at the Fool about gorilla gaming. There are and always will be a myriad of opinions about the concepts we have come to focus on in gorilla gaming. I try to remain focused and not flip out... BB