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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (2446)	6/27/2000 12:02:00 AM
From: Archie Meeties	Respond to of 33421

This table, updated weekly, may be helpful in trading NG. Message 13920220 Those are mediocre injections - and support a bullish trend for NG. Only a very mild summer and the return to normal sized injections could bring prices down. Anything else, and NG keeps climbing. Rig utilization is only now reaching levels which can support growth in ng production. The delay between rig activity and NG deliverability is at least 3-6 months (longer if it is pure exploration instead of development), although the deeper fields (where most of the reserves are) take longer. IOW, gas production may stabilize, but is not going to significantly increase this summer. If a hot summer develops, especially in the Gulf Coast and CA, this winter will see much, much higher NG prices. $6-8 is not out of the question. El nina has moderated and there will be no el nino, so a return to normal winters is likely. BTW, a surging price of NG also supports a bullish trend for electricity. It also makes the switch from heating oil to NG in the NE less appealing. HO will be another train wreck this winter. No way around it. The normal HO builds in the Spring were sacrificed to prevent big problems with gasoline during summer.

To: John Pitera who wrote (2446)	6/27/2000 3:54:00 AM
From: X Y Zebra	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 33421

I myself have been very surprised because 10 and 15 years ago I expected solar energy to be much more widespread. Cheap resources (oil & gas) and ease of production have been the current obstacles for the development of the Solar Energy development. I really believe that the endgame in energy over the next 25 to 50 years is perfecting the batteries and transmission mechanisms to put us on a solar based power system. These guys seem to agree... ases.org Fossil fuels like coal, oil and natural gas are being depleted at a rate that is 100,000 times faster than they are being formed. (4) Oil provides more than 40% of the nation's primary energy and 97% of its transportation energy. (4) Oil production has not grown since 1979. It is now actually 170 million tons below the peak it reached that year. (2) In 1995, oil imports accounted for 52 percent of U.S. oil consumption. (8) Most electricity is currently produced by burning coal, oil or natural gas to make steam which in turn is forced through a turbine generator producing electricity. (2) Approximately 35 % of all U.S. energy needs are supplied by electrical power. About two-thirds of this electricity is used in residential and commercial buildings, and about one third is used for industrial processes. (8) Buildings consume about 36% of all primary energy (excluding transportation) produced in the United States and two-thirds of all electricity generated. (8) If California was a nation on its own, it would be the worlds fourth largest consumer of energy. (1992) (9) Japan imports' 70% of its energy from the Middle East. (9) No more coal is produced today than in 1988, and far less than the peak reached in 1989. (1) The Federal Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects America to be importing 60% of its oil at a cost of $100 billion per year by 2006. (3) The Energy Information Administration expects the United States to be importing 10 million barrels of oil per day within 10 to 15 years (between 2006 and 2011) even if current domestic production levels are maintained. That's 30 times more than optimistic per day estimates from the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. (3) The world will probably need another 20 million barrels of oil a day by the year 2010, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). (3) Crucial industries for development are also the most energy intensive: primary metals; stone, clay, and glass; pulp and paper; petroleum refining; and chemicals. In the United States these industries account for more than 80% of the manufacturing energy consumption and (and more than 80% of the industrial waste). (3) A DOE national lab found that if China and India double the proportion of people living in cities they will increase per capita energy consumption by 45% -- even if industrialization and per capita income remain the same. (3) Royal Dutch/Shell Group predicts that renewables may make up one third of the supply of new electricity within three decades (by 2026). Predicting energy futures is chancy but the following points lend credibility to this forecast: (3) * Royal Dutch/Shell was the only oil company to anticipate both the 1973 oil-price boom and 1986's bust. * Shell does not assume any attempt by governments to incorporate environmental costs into the price of energy. * Chris Fay, chairman and CEO of Shell UK Ltd., said fossil fuel supply is likely to peak in 2030 but the prediction does not rely on supply limits. *It recognizes the tremendous advances made in renewable energy technologies. more... A list of solar energy related businesses energy.sourceguides.com

To: John Pitera who wrote (2446)	6/27/2000 9:33:00 AM
From: Chip McVickar	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 33421

I really believe that the endgame in energy over the next 25 to 50 years is perfecting the batteries and transmission mechanisms to put us on a solar based power system. This could be very true. But I suspect technology will create totally new energy supplies we have not encountered before. Magnetic structures are possible turbines and some of the photovoltaic work is promising. BTW, are you familiar with the work of Dr. Thomas Gold and the origin of the earths oil and gas reserves...? In our life times there is plenty of hydrocarbons, this I am not worried about. The political muscle of the consortiums and the industrial supply of these hydrocarbons is the big serious question. Chip