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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tekboy who wrote (26918)	6/27/2000 5:13:00 PM
From: tekboy	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

But seriously, everybody stop being so defensive re ratan. It's entirely legitimate to feel confused these days given what's been happening, and it would be inhuman if some of that wasn't reflected in the thread. My own take on the subject is this: 1. Far from there being more new gorilla candidates now than earlier, I am struck by how the same names have dominated discussion over a year and a half. I mean, check out those original presentations I posted last night, all from spring 1999--GMST, SEBL, SNDK, RMBS, QCOM.... There was a brief flurry of pebblish suggestions during the later stages of the bubble in early Y2K, but by and large there's been a lot of continuity beneath the surface, IMO. 2. If the candidates remain the same, however, discussion of them waxes and wanes, driven by changes in fashion, fundamentals, and price. Thus Rambus got a lot of play during the summer and fall last year, then was largely ignored during the late fall, winter, and spring, and now is coming under the spotlight once again. This is legitimate and appropriate, because we clearly have just witnessed an inflection point in the Rambus story, and need to think through what is likely to come next. 3. QCOM is a special case, being not only the "house" gorilla (i.e. the thread called the shot, accurately and in real time) but also the thread's largest holding. So even though there has been no real change in its gorilla status, the dramatic fluctuation in its stock price (both up and down) has naturally received a lot of attention. Also, we seem to be nearing an inflection point there, too, with Nokia's impending capitulation possibly putting an end to the second Holy Wars. 3. Sometimes topics go into hibernation because there's no change in the story. Thus JDSU, NTAP, and SEBL are widely held, acknowledged as two kings (sorry DS) and a gorilla, and come to the fore only when there's some news to discuss (or the storage weenies feel a need to butt horns). 4. GMST is also a special case, because we called it correctly (I think) but it's taken longer than people thought for the candle to be lit. Such is life, but nearly all are still keeping the faith. 5. Then there are shifts in fashion. ARMHY, for example, has never gotten much attention, even though it seems to meet a number of the criteria we like. SNDK was widely dismissed as a pebble by many, but then has come back into favor recently for some reason that has yet to be explained (since the story has simply not changed that much). alles es in ordnung, gotta run, tekboy@orpostingprivilegesmaybedockedbytg.com