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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (26991)	6/28/2000 11:31:00 AM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Mike, << Remember that set-top boxes are supposed to be available in the retail channel beginning in July because June is the last month that consumers are limited to the products offered by their cable provider >> Good point. When I made my consciously premature decision to begin taking a position in GMST last October, and continuing into December, I made the decision that we could start to see hypergrowth in 3rd or 4th quarter 2000. I based this on when I thought advanced set tops and TV's with GMST inside would start shipping in large quantity. I'll confess however that I don't no the industry that well, but as we near the potential tornado I guarantee I'll be sharpening up. What are your thoughts on whether or not the tornado winds will start to blow this this year? I look back on QCOM and note that it was fully 9 months to a year after hypergrowth began (using the subscriber growth metric) before this reflected in serious stock appreciation. I also recall that there was a "defining event" in the QCOM example (ERICY/QCOM accord). In this case I see the completion of the TV Guide merger (assuming positive) as being a defining event. Your thoughts on where you think we stand relative to the technology adoption life cycle for GMST would be greatly appreciated. - Eric -