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To: Mike Buckley who wrote (26998)	6/28/2000 11:58:00 AM
From: shamsaee	Respond to of 54805

Bux's theory makes sense if NOkia was in the CDMA market competing.The recent 3G auctions and beauty contests have shrunk their time frame.Carriers like everyone else are going to be in a race to be the first to the market with DATA and voice capacity at higher speeds.They will not wait on any single supplier on rosy promises and will move forward with the technology that is ready to be put to use.I am sure when those bids were made on spectrum,return on equity was taken into account over a specific time period.Delays would be catastrophic. I agree with you that NOK's arrogance will be their downfall.I think we will see it showing up on their scorecard soon.All my views are based on believing that WCDMA is an INTEGRAL part of qcom's IP.If somehow Someone could do WCDMA without infringement on qcom patents,then all bets are off and qcom will only be a niche player. Other companies have made the same mistake i.e.IBM.

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (26998)	6/28/2000 1:49:00 PM
From: StockHawk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

>>The company I used to work for was tiny in comparison, yet top management simply didn't understand what was really happening in the field << Recently someone suggested that we read an article on CTXS (not directed at you) by Jubak. The line in that story I liked best was this one: >>The current quarter has demonstrated that Citrix executives aren't able to deliver accurate guidance to Wall Street about their own company. << When I read Jubak's comment, and when I read yours, I thought the same thing - that it is much, much more difficult for management to accurately assess near term prospects/results than many people would imagine. I have a financial background. In the past I worked as a controller and a CFO for subsidiaries of a relatively small listed corporation. And in those positions forecasting results was often part of my responsibility. This was in a low tech, easy to understand service industry, and yet we were often surprised by how much the actual results could differ from the forecasts. Why does that happen? Optimistic indications from sales executives, can-do projections from line management, positive affirmations from bonus-driven executives, smiling, friendly lunches with customers who avoid mentioning the bad news, competitors out of left field foolishly acquire new work at low prices or savvy ones who offer something new or better, executives in denial or afraid to suggest bad news, etc. etc. The point being, we should always treat management forecasts with caution. Especially from winning teams. They are use to beating expectations, and even when things start to go wrong they believe they will be able to right them - after all, that's what made them winners in the first place. That is why it is important to watch the trend in earnings growth, and the degree to which EPS numbers beat the estimates. Most good companies have enough padding in their numbers that they can still meet expectations when things start to go wrong, but the degree of the winnings may shift. Slowdowns and problems are sometimes telegraphed in subtle ways. That is why the vigilance of this board is so important. Or as a skeptic might say: Question everything, believe little, come to your own conclusions. StockHawk