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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (32098)	6/28/2000 12:53:00 PM
From: Peace	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50167

Hi Iqbal, I don't think the fed will tighten this time around. We have started seeing early signs of a slowdown with more to come. Fed monetary policy typically takes 6-12 months to start showing in the economy. What we are seeing now are the effects of the early moves from last year. The recent moves still have to work their way in to the system. Increasingly people have started wondering whether the fed may have gone too far with their rate moves. With a 50bp hike the last time around, I think they will stand pat this time around and maybe act in August if the slowing signs do not continue. I am betting on no more hikes. I think the fed will hold off any more increases and will be successful in taming this growth. Hopefully we dont get a runaway market with irrational exuberence <ggg>. We have seen a lot of good tech names make good recovery. In my opinion the net stocks were way ahead of their time and most will not return to the crazy valuation levels. In due course the successful & profitable net companies will get the respect they deserve. Peace

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (32098)	6/28/2000 1:30:00 PM
From: YxY	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

" I would think that the gang may hike cotarary to marekt expectations a .25% but move to a neutral bias" Why not, but it seems to me that Fed has been very careful to let markets anticipate its action and not surprise people at the last moment. I even don't remember of a tightening that was not anticipated by the market the last few days before the fed meeting.

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (32098)	6/28/2000 2:48:00 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Ideas statement...<<I think FOMC would be satisfied with the slow down and we are nearly at the top of a tightening cycle, the aggregate demand will definitely show further slow down and last thing Fed would like to be accused is of taking sides in 'presidential election politics' in a election year, I would think that the gang may hike cotarary to market expectations a .25% but move to a neutral bias, that will be ideal for the present state of economy and market, by moving the bias they would signal not interfering with the markets and tightening will be to pacify the hawks the erring to caution still continues, a long shot to FOMC result but worth a call. I would think that a dip after the announcement is buy if the conditions I have set above are met if other conditions are sighted like continued bias to tightening and heightened worries a dip below 1442 will take us to 1428 area or may be lower on cash.. > Fed statement.. if anything else we picked up words like aggregate demand, heightened.from Fed statement...gg <<Recent data suggest that the expansion of aggregate demand may be moderating toward a pace closer to the rate of growth of the economy's potential to produce. Although core measures of prices are rising slightly faster than a year ago, continuing rapid advances in productivity have been containing costs and holding down underlying price pressures. Nonetheless, signs that growth in demand is moving to a sustainable pace are still tentative and preliminary, and the utilization of the pool of available workers remains at an unusually high level. In these circumstances, and against the background of its long-term goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available, the Committee believes the risks continue to be weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate heightened inflation pressures in the foreseeable future. >>