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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Techplayer who wrote (15250)	6/29/2000 10:21:00 AM
From: telecomguy	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 21876

"Let's see how this quarter and next quarter do before passing judgement" TP, it's 20-20 to wait for the next quarterlies AND THEN make a judgement. Anyone can do that. The trick is to anticipate and UNDERSTAND what is happening in the FIELD before the numbers are tabulated. If you need to see the quarterlies before declaring LU is in trouble, then you clearly are not an astute investor. The market is usually rational and there are lots of reasons why LU and NT's valuations have gone the opposite way -- in fact it's very probable that the market (analysts) have not quite factored in the shift in market share from LU to NT as it's happening in real-time, NOW. LU as I said is not going to dissappear obviously -- but NT will easily outperform based on the foundation moves they have made in the past year in the key growth sector within networking -- Optics and Wireless. I am not sure why this is so hard to understand!!!

To: Techplayer who wrote (15250)	6/30/2000 10:28:37 AM
From: telecomguy	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 21876

TP you are WRONG. You state that "Once the enterprise group is spun, the remaining company will exhibit a growth rate making it a deal compared to your NT at present levels" WHY is NT growing at 30% to 40% WITH it's static enterprise business in their fold when LU is stagnating? LU is stagnating overall because their optical and wireless units are not contributing hypergrowth like NT. Why are you so blind to the facts staring at you? When LU strips enterprise and microelectronics, you state that the remaining Carrier networking core will grow on par with NT. You forget that by doing that, you have just introduced lot more volatility and beta. Here is a thought TP. Why doesn't McGinn divest every business under LU EXCEPT the Optics component division? Then LU will show probably 50% growth y-o-y!! Then LU will be trading at proper PE that you believe they should be trading at. Do you see what I am getting at? LU is no longer the same LU at that point...............increasing PE by stripping all the non-performing divisions/assets is an ADMISSION of DEFEAT ESPECIALLY IF THE SPIN-OFF'S ARE IN RELATED BUSINESS. It's one thing if McGuinn was spinning off a hotel business (hypothetical example) under LU but to claim that Enterprise is not growing as fast therefore we are going to spin it off because doesn't fit into LU's business is ludicrous and laughable. If McGuinn is not turfed out, LU will be a fragment of itself and running for it's life against better managed companies like NT and ALA (who would have thought ALA would be better managed than LU even few years ago!!). As 3COM will find out, you can't SPIN (OFF) your way to profitability and stock appreciation. McGuinn should be concentrating on MANAGING the LU assets rather than worrying about how to increase the PE and paper valuation of LU. If he had taken care of the business properly, PE and Stock Price would have naturally appreciated! It's that simple TP.