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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Thomas Mercer-Hursh who wrote (27132)	7/1/2000 7:16:11 AM
From: shamsaee	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

I believe 30% to 35% revenues are generated from CDMA Asics sale.If the koreans should end up going with WCDMA, we will have a few factors bringing the companies growth down considerably. 1)Since there are no clearly defined specs on WCDMA,qcom has no Asics production in the area and being built on top of a gsm stack will be at a disadvantage to other producers(NOK,ERIC,MOT and the rest of GSM camp) since they have considerable GSM expertise.Qcom will also have to cross licence GSM IP which will give the GSM camp some leverage. 2)The time delay will also be a SIGNIFICANT FACTOR.To my knowledge there is no WCDMA system ready for roll out,while CDMA 2000 is ready for implementation and hence those promised earnings will not happen. 3)The royalties in wcdma should remain the same as per Qcom's IR but will probably take some lawsuits to be recieved(my personal opinion,Although IJ mentioned something along the same lines in a CC).The time frame of the legal battles is anyone's guess. ERIC's and Chaz's opinion here would be appreciated. I beieve HDR success is a very important to earnings in order to offset possible setbacks in other areas.

To: Thomas Mercer-Hursh who wrote (27132)	7/2/2000 8:41:10 AM
From: 100cfm	Respond to of 54805

what is the financial impact on QCOM's future revenue prospects if the herd decides to go with WCDMA? Thats the 64k question. Since it is unknown at this time what Q's actual net royalty will be. I think more importantly right now we must look at what's appening to Q in a GG sense. They are being outfalnked,boxed in and quarantined like a virus by the opposition which is mostly made up of what should be their own value chain. It was Europe that was to become the Island it now looks like 1X will be the Island and Q will be the niche gorilla in 1X. There is no 1X tornado of yet and if there is it is very weak. There is no WCDMA tornado what so ever and there might not be for 2 to 3 yrs and Q may not be the WCDMA Gorilla, we just don't know how dominant they will be in Wcdma ASICs and how much of the WCDMA ROYALTY PIE they will get. So what we have is a gorilla with it's IS95 tornado fading and 1X tornado just beginning but the market for that tornado is being shrunken by it's own value chain and the opposition. The Gorilla can afford to be timid NO MORE! 100 PS SI still screwed up, still getting error messages posting to database. Last night when I clicked on NEXT 10 MESSAGES I started reading posts such as I picked up 3/4s on QCOM today and yhea I bagged JDSU TWICE once up and then Dn and so forth. As I read on in horror with jaw agape I was saying to myself it's happened the G&Kers are abandoning ship even Lindy sold Q. Then when I click the next 10 I noticed the header SHORT TERM TRADERS. I blew out a sigh of releif and went directly to bed.