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Biotech / Medical : XOMA. Bull or Bear? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Bluegreen who wrote (13916)7/1/2000 1:21:10 PM
From: Cacaito  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 17367
 
Blueg, We argued the same in the past, the baboon abstract and the title do not provide the benefits of the full article in terms of understanding. I post before the full article conclusions and it does not agree on with your view!

But, let's just for the sake of it say that We (meaning the blue and cacaito) agree that 1-the antibacterial properties are more important and 2-earlier use will provide an easy way to prove efficacy.

Then, We have a bigger problem, not an easier one:

If xoma's rbpi21 has minimal or none antiiflammatory activity then it is just another antibiotic, just more expensive to manufacture, and more strained to market, cause the abilities are less, the public will pay less.
The probable price of an effective first antishock product is on the range of $3,000 to $6,000 because of decrease use in resources in ICUs, plus the patients benefits, plus decrease disabilities, one could even assume a high price for the first in the class like $10,000. Well if rbpi21 is just an antibiotic for resistant organisms, or even for proven infections as an add on, one could reduce the price to 10% of a good antishock medication, and this will be a $300 to a high end $1000 per treatment, WAY expensive for a bug killer, even great antibiotics in the market are price as less than $500 per FULL course, and generics cut this to half of it, is rbpi21 so cheap to manufacture that will upset this devaluation?, other pedtides antibiotics are coming, so big competition in same class will come too.
Some of the most powerfull antibiotics like Metronidazole (generic of Flagyl)are less than $100 full course treatment!!, and the all flagships still useful like ampicillin and gentamicin are way below that!!!

If rbpi21 antiinflammatory effects are not important, then Why xoma was interested in trauma, ards prevention, post blood loss antiendotoxin block? (it failed, maybe you are right), Why the esoteric interest in Chlamydia-heart disease connection? pfizer Zythromax ($100 per treatment)and dirt cheap old erythromycin ($15 per treatment) do the same!!!, so what does rbpi21 at $1000 bucks will do better? or is it another concoction of xoma's feeble attempts?

Check this: "". The in vivo formation of tumor necrosis factor was significantly suppressed by the rBPI21 treatment regimen. Microcirculation and organ function were improved."" ...from the same abstract you constantly refer too, does that sound as just plain killing of bugs? No, and that is the hope of rbpi21 (and the reason I still followed this sad story, but not with my money).

Maybe, xoma has a trick and the drug is dirt cheap to manufacture, they already built the main expense, a $50M? facility if I remember well, please correct me if not.
If that is the case, well the antibiotic effect will be good enough to profit...

...But, Do you prefer another antibiotic at $100 vs an antibiotic-antishock-antiinflammatory $5,000? It just does not compute, is like the case of Gw prefering a restrain xoma's failure?

(his view, in my view xoma ceoperson behave like any of the so called rogue states, completely impervious with his full blown out of proportion and clearly misleading and malicious "clinical benefits" words, even way after fully knowing the months longs analysis and pre-pre-pre meetings-pre-BLA fda rejection, that is the essence of UNRESTRAIN!

Or do you prefer a real $5,000 ICU drug vs an eye drug that will take Allergan forever to figure out and compete with current $5 bucks eye drops? WOW.

It just does not compute, unless one is using the same computers that Gw say could not handle the complex analysis xoma was doing!!!

Of course Gw, the DR plantain power computers could not handle xoma's analysis, cause not even Kasparov defeating BigBlue could solve xoma's meningo trial, how could a computer reverse a FAILURE!



To: Bluegreen who wrote (13916)7/1/2000 2:02:57 PM
From: Cacaito  Read Replies (5) | Respond to of 17367
 
Blueg, We agree (for the sake of it)number 2: Here we are
again in cold waters, if the drug is use early one will have better results? sounds reasonable but:

1- so what? the placebo was given late too.

2- so what? there were two groups of patients A-less severe, and B-more severe, here one is using the drug much early anyway in the "A" group compared to the "B" group each with their corresponding placebo, more than enough stratification to get the results.

3- DSMB did not stop the trial due to overwheelming sucess, it was xoma full responsibility to reach more subjects. I do understand the $constrain, but it does not mean justification to the science part which does not care about the company financials.

4- if rbpi21 needs so a timely use, the "B" group should have clearly show so, and there were about 80% of subjects )if not 90%) in that group, do they need more numbers? They knew that, I calculated between 600 to 900.
lack of money?Who cares!!! they are in the money business, lack of time? Who cares!!! they are in a time sensitive business.

5-Real life research is full of problems, xoma had the resources and the (mis)handling, So what, who cares, they have to execute despite and because of this, Synergen dissapear with the same Gw argument "trauma placebo patients did 50% better" And do you swallow that?, it is a well know effect, we post about that tons, it is still not in efficacy favor and it is muted point, It MUST be proven efficacious. PERIOD!

6- as per Gw, Lilly has the advantage of the high number of subjects, Yes, SO WHAT, Lilly chose the disease, the strategy, funded well, execute, and got the prize. This is called COMPETITION, and you have been xomathinking with disregard for competition, oh yes I presented Icos numbers, very good results in all areas that rbpi21 failed and the response is a cacophony constant repetition of a misquoted baboon study!!! And suggestions that Lilly does not have good data, despite the not so common occurrence of a DSMB stopping a trial due to SUCCESS, or that Lilly will not be able to carry on in a timely manner to FDA approval and to marketing!

Worse, you are easily saying that Lilly will lag, and Icos will lag, and Chiron will lag, and xoma will storm through!!! Not so, plain wrong on your part!

Competition is good, of course, when you can crush them, not getting chrushed like xoma!!!

According to you and Gw, xoma deserves more diapers pampers than a 3 mo/old baby with diarrhea!!!