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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric L who wrote (27240)	7/3/2000 4:23:00 PM
From: pann1128	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Re: QCOM<p> Eric,<p> Appreciate your balanced views on QCOM. The picture you paint is not as rosy as some diehards paint, but you are still looking for a bright future. I am having a hard time figuring out where the growth is coming from in your scenario. No new carriers seem to be adopting CDMAOne or 1xMC. If GPRS is going to become the dominant air interface before 3G(WCDMA dominant) takes root, then where is the growth in CDMA subscriber base coming from? You cited a CDG forcast which calls for CDMA growth of 67% CAGR over five years. Do you see that as possible? Most analysts, including the QCOM bulls have whittled down their estimates for next year to a 20% growth rate. So what changes in 2002, 2003 etc.<p> Thanks for the great analysis that you have been sharing with everyone. For my part I keep wondering if the CDMA voice tornado has already blown over, and the data tornado won't really arrive until 3G? <p> Happy 4th of July to everyone.<p> Piyush

To: Eric L who wrote (27240)	7/3/2000 4:33:44 PM
From: alburk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Will Q be the 3G Gorilla? Gorilla Game experts please help. It seems to me that Q’s gorilla status at this point is limited to 1G and 2G CDMA enabling technology—CDMA wireless voice communications enabling technology. We are all expecting Q’s gorilla status to encompass 2G CDMA data. But, the future hinges on 3G voice and data. Q does not appear to be the Gorilla of wireless digital voice communications technology—1G and 2G. GSM is the undisputed market leader on a worldwide basis, several times larger than CDMA in terms of subscribers and systems. There is no gorilla in this larger theatre. There may or may not be a 3G voice and data gorilla. 3G voice and data is the anticipated mass market. The 3G tornado has yet to begin. Is the landslide in Q’s stock price explained by the markets assessment that Q does not have a lock on 3G gorilla status? This weekend I read a post by Eric L. (very informative) that said, “It is becoming increasingly evident that in the 3G world, committee based open architecture will dominate…” This seems to bring in a whole new variable that to my recollection is not discussed in the Gorilla Game. Q has significant IPR to bring to the 3G game but the game is not typical in that governments are collaborating with competitors to channel 3G into a committee based open architecture, heavily influenced, if not controlled, by governments. If they are successful (dominant), can 3G be a gorilla game? Can Q be the 3G gorilla. Gorilla Game experts please help. Thanks, Andy PS I wrote this over the weekend. I see that parts have been touched upon today. Decided to post it anyway. Thanks for input Eric L. and Mike Buckley