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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (10861)	7/5/2000 9:40:26 PM
From: Madharry	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78520

Paul do you happen to know what sort of internet access is available on cruise lines?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (10861)	7/6/2000 7:55:45 AM
From: TimbaBear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78520

Regarding CCL and capacity....I am a frequent cruiser, so I'm bringing that perspective to this issue....I'll leave the public statements on valuation analysis to those who have demonstrated more proficiency at it than I have. Paul, most new ships that CCL brings on line do not end up in a net increase in ships for the line....they sell the older ones. Yes, it might be argued that even though CCL doesn't own the ships, they are still afloat and still booking passengers, but that issue is one of which market is being served by those older ships and do they have a negative impact on the current flow of bookings for CCL....I don't think it hurts them, but the reasoning is a bit lengthier than I want to get into at this post. When looking at CCL's percentage of capacity booked, you will note that they are still over 100% and increasing, so I don't think the capacity issue is germaine just yet. People who cruise the first time and like it, cruise a LOT....most ships that I have been on lately we're talking in excess of 70% of the passengers are repeat passengers and I would guess that over half of those are on their 5th cruise or higher. The fleet that has the newest ships will draw more first time passengers and therefore will get the higher residual repeat passengers. The newer ships have internet capability that will be even more of a draw and they are developing other value-added services as profit centers in an effort to maximize the profitability of each cruiser. The sector has been out of favor since oil prices started to rise. I think oil prices have peaked and you may be right about CCL going to 16, I don't know, but with a P/B of 2.0 and Operating Margins of 26%, I don't think it is a bad price to buy the leader in this industry.