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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: f.simons who wrote (119475)	7/6/2000 2:34:03 PM
From: dougSF30	Respond to of 1583406

Who knows, fsimons, but we can guess what they'd make of a ttm P/E of 35 in the semi sector, with guidance of another $4 for 2H 2000. They'll love it. Doug

To: f.simons who wrote (119475)	7/6/2000 2:36:53 PM
From: Jim McMannis	Respond to of 1583406

RE:"Any number less than 3.32 will represent a slowdown in earnings growth, by definition. Is this a fair analysis? Maybe, maybe not. But the law of small numbers has caught up with AMD, and who knows what investors will make of an earnings growth slowdown? " Heck no, it's not fair analysis. All AMD needs to do is catch the Analysts off guard. Salomon Smith Blarney has help set that up too... This is going to be like taking candy from a baby... Jim

To: f.simons who wrote (119475)	7/6/2000 2:42:57 PM
From: tejek	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1583406

But what would constitute a "stunning earnings" report? I am talking from memory, but I believe AMD has earned .43 and 1.17 the last two quarters. Q1 was a 232% increase over Q4. It will have to earn 3.32 in Q2 to keep this pace up. Not even Niceguy is predicting that result. Any number less than 3.32 will represent a slowdown in earnings growth, by definition. Is this a fair analysis? Maybe, maybe not. But the law of small numbers has caught up with AMD, and who knows what investors will make of an earnings growth slowdown? Frank, The whisper number is $1.28. I would think anything beating that number would do the trick. ted

To: f.simons who wrote (119475)	7/6/2000 2:59:34 PM
From: minnow68	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1583406

Your analysis assumes people expect the 232% a quarter earnings growth. This is 12149% annual earnings growth. Let's see, the old rule of them is that the PE ratio should not exceed the growth rate. Therefore, looking at only the last quarter (that is $4.60 annualized), AMD should be trading at about $55,885 per share. Since AMD is trading at a pretty huge discount to this number, I don't think anyone is expecting the 12149% annualized earnings growth to continue...