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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Techplayer who wrote (15303)	7/6/2000 3:56:12 PM
From: Clay Takaya	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 21876

Here is a portion of the text for this story: There have been "rumors" that the company won't meet earnings expectations, said Marjorie Saint-Amie, a research analyst with Pittsburg Institutional Inc. "Everybody's talking about it." Mary Lou Ambrus, a spokeswoman for the Murray Hill, N.J., maker of communications equipment, said of the stock drops, "Clearly we haven't made any announcements, so what can I say?" Saint-Amie said she talked with someone in the company's investor relations department recently, and "they didn't deny" that the company would miss the consensus estimate of analysts and also didn't provide any comforting statements. For that reason, Saint-Amie said, "I would expect them to make an announcement tomorrow or sometime after the close today." But Lucent's Ambrus responded, "We have no plans to issue a press release (preannouncing a below-expectations miss) today or tomorrow." She would not comment on whether that excludes any possibility of a preannouncement Doesn't look very good. I hope Mr. Fun turns out to be right. I just bought a trading position. Clay

To: Techplayer who wrote (15303)	7/6/2000 4:04:57 PM
From: Mr.Fun	Read Replies (9) \| Respond to of 21876

The "LU will pre-announce" rumor made the appointed rounds this morning - our desk heard it first from Europe. To put it in perspective, there have been "LU will pre-announce rumors for each of the last 8 quarters - you can see it in the historical trading pattern if you don't believe me. Not even the most bearish sell siders are running with this story, and I am extremely confident that it is wrong. Now TP, as to your friend who now hates Lucent: It really depends on what part of Lucent she worked. Morale ranges from great to horrible - with first half stock performance there to add visceral passion. Now, how is it that I think her LU stock will be a strong performer? 1. NT can fill only a third of the expected demand for optical equipment in 2000. With orders in hand from NTT, BT, Telefonica, DT, TelecomItalia, KPN, Telia, Beijing Telecom Authority, China Unicom, Global Crossing and AT&T, LU will get as much of the remaining business as it can serve. Given very aggressive ordering from Vitesse, AMCC and JDSU, it looks like LU will be able to deliver optical revs of $7B or more for 2000 - a 70% growth rate. 2. Wireless - LU has half the AWE business, half the SprintPCS business and two thirds the Verizon business. That's more than $4B in 2000 from three customers. Add in $1.5B from the Saudis, and attractive contracts in Japan, Australia, Latin America and China - LU will deliver more than $8B in 2000 - a better than 35% growth rate. 3. Carrier data equipment - mostly Ascend - has been growing at an 80% YoY clip. Look for revenues to approach $4B for CY00. 4. Micro-electronics growth has been extraordinary this quarter. Semiconductor sales - growing 35% YoY. Opto-electronics growing 80%. Power Systems growing 20%. Fiber growing 70%. In total - more than $5B in 2000 revenues with 40% growth. 5. Professional services project to over $1b in 2000 sales with 30%+ growth. What's not to like?