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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (117)	7/7/2000 5:14:58 PM
From: Wally Mastroly	Respond to of 10065

Don't count on any new oil until it's shipped... biz.yahoo.com

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (117)	7/7/2000 6:16:51 PM
From: MrGreenJeans	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10065

Justa MJG: Re: "My point was nonfarm payrolls are starting to showing anemic growth which is what the Federal Reserve is targeting." I would not expect anything but slowing growth since there are fewer and fewer workers to be found. The available labor supply is somewhere in the 9.8 to 10 million area. There is still ample labor supply to go around generally speaking for people with general unspecialized skills. I believe off the top of my head nonfarm payrolls increased by about 11,000 jobs in June, this could be incorrect, but the number was anemic. Rate increases are kicking in. Further, I think Bob was caught off guard by this report. I thought I heard him say some weeks ago the weather or seasonal patterns had a dampening effect, no pun intended, effecting the May unemployment number and that the May number could be revised up. I got the impression he expected more job growth in the June report. In fact, I believe, again I do not have the report in front of me, the May numbers were revised down. There has been no 20% decline yet. But I would not wait around with a stop watch on this one. Brinker said this would all take time going into next year. If Brinker thought this move would take time going into next year why was his January partial sell call...immediate?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (117)	7/7/2000 6:55:37 PM
From: Boca_PETE	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10065

YIELD CURVE INVERSION WATCH: As of tonight, yield for 10-Yr T-Note = 6.00% vs 6.01% for the 90-Day T-Bill. Thus .01% inversion commenced at market close today. P

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (117)	7/7/2000 9:53:47 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

Fed's work not done quite yet -poll By Svea Herbst-Bayliss NEW YORK, July 7 (Reuters) - Wall Street dealers say it is too soon to sound an all clear on inflation, but growth may be slowing enough to let the Federal Reserve end its credit tightening sooner than expected, a Reuters poll found on Friday. A soft government report on June employment, showing only a meagre 11,000 new jobs added to payrolls outside the farm sector, provided fresh evidence that the Fed's year-long campaign to slow growth by pushing up interest rates is finally bearing fruit, economists said. ``There's enough evidence of moderation now. We have to assume that the (Fed) will also work with this data. There seems to be a moderation in demand and there hasn't been an acceleration in inflation,'' said Kevin Logan, senior economist at Dresdner Kleinwort. In a Reuters poll conducted right after release of the payrolls report, more than two-thirds of the nation's 29 primary dealers said they look for a rise in short-term rates at the Fed's next policy meeting on Aug. 22. The primary dealers work directly with the New York Fed in the open market. But over the two weeks since the dealers were last polled on June 21, a string of soft data has prompted economists to trim their forecasts, in some cases to no rate hike at all. While 20 dealers predict a rate hike in August, nine now expect the Fed will hold rates steady, up from two who looked for no move two weeks ago. The number looking for a quarter percentage point rise in August in the 6.50 percent federal funds rate, which banks charge to borrow money overnight, has fallen by three to 15, and the number expecting a half point rise is down to five in the latest poll from eight two weeks ago. ``The (payrolls) number remains consistent with the soft landing scenario'' said Bear Stearns senior economist John Ryding. ``I think we have seen the last rate increase of the year.'' Futures contracts on the federal funds overnight bank lending rate rallied after the June jobs report, suggesting a lower likelihood of an August rate hike. The contracts put the chances of such a move at around 40 percent vs. around 50 percent on Thursday, analysts said. Other market signposts pointed to a similar conclusion, with short-term U.S. Treasury yields nudging seven month lows and interest-rate sensitive financial services shares pushing the Dow Jones industrial average higher. Only a few days ago, the Fed called a time out on its year-long tightening cycle aimed at cooling growth enough to prevent economic overheating. Still the economy charged ahead at an annualized 5.5 percent rate in the first quarter of 2000, only slightly slower than the blistering 7.3 percent annual rate seen in the fourth quarter of 1999. Looking to year-end, only 10 primary dealers' economists now expect to see the federal funds rate at 7.00 percent or higher while 17 thought it would be at those levels two weeks ago. Following two months of softer retail sales data, June's jobs report offered the latest hints that the Fed's rate hikes were finally bearing fruit. Even though the unemployment rate fell to 4.0 percent in June from 4.1 percent, suggesting ongoing tightness in the labour markets, economists noted that May's and April's payroll numbers were both revised down, meaning that only 90,000 new jobs were added on average in the last two months. But many economists remained sceptical, warning that upcoming inflation data, particularly the key employment cost index for the second quarter, may show the Fed is not done tightening. ``These numbers are not weak enough to say the economy has rolled over and is playing dead and that the Fed has nothing else to worry about,'' said Steve Ricchiuto, chief U.S. economist at ABN AMRO. Goldman Sachs chief U.S. economist William Dudley also worried about the inflation outlook, noting a 4.0 percent unemployment rate is too low. With so much demand for their services, workers might demand higher wages which could force employers to raise their prices and thereby push up consumer prices. Since some now-sleepy economic gauge could still spring back to life, economists said it is safer to say the Fed will tighten at least one more time this year and then evaluate the effects. But they also agreed there is virtually no chance for the economy to sink into recession. ``We could see a recession if the economy generated inflation in a hurry, and while it is not ruled out entirely, there is only a one in four chance for that next year,'' said Richard Berner, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter. 16:39 07-07-00