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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (55940)7/8/2000 12:32:20 PM
From: goldsheet  Respond to of 116815
 
> People have been saying for years that the gold bull market is just around the corner.

New Gold Bull Coming
"Nobody can be sure exactly when such a catalyst will occur, but the writer's best guess is sometime in the second half of 1997. And when gold can again breach $400, however unlikely that now seems, it will astound on the upside."
gold-eagle.com

It can indeed take a lot longer than we originally thought. Gold was $348.00 on 04/09/97
Not intended as a criticism, just another one of those historical observations.



To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (55940)7/8/2000 1:36:51 PM
From: Rarebird  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 116815
 
George, I know that many investors have become exclusively very speculative short term traders over the past couple of years, where each has his own system and is a big shot who brags away as Mr. Know it all successful trader. These guys come a dime a dozen. I've primarily gone the other route over the past two decades. I like to buy stocks that are cheap on a PE and cash flow and price to sales basis and which are selling near or below book value. Sometimes they languish and do nothing for 2-3 years. But when they move to the upside, they tend to double and triple. I see nothing wrong in sitting on a stock for a few years and taking long term capital gains. The argument against that, of course, is that your losing potential gains while you wait. But that's not true at all except when you first begin investing perhaps. If you buy a few of these out of favor cheap stocks each year, you'll find that each year a few will explode to the upside when they come back in favor. I've never gone long a stock on margin. When I buy a stock, I'm prepared to hold it a few years, if need be. I only take half or quarter positions initially.

Moreover, one can set up a small portion of one's portfolio as a short term trading account, if you like to speculate and think your a Market Maven. I have a short term trading account and do speculate short term. But it only represents 15% of my portfolio.

I'm not all that concerned about the gold stocks. The fundamentals are clearly turning in gold's favor and it is just a matter of time before they take off. I think in this market mania environment, you'll need to see clear evidence of a coming recession before that occurs. I own 3 gold stocks, which are sitting in my long term account and I have no intention of selling them until either gold comes back in favor or I see a nice bear spike up ( actually, one of my gold stocks, PDG, is up nicely.)

In this market, I think it is very important to turn out the noise and look closely at the fundamentals.

PS I'm going to try to check out your claim about the commercials being long when gold fell from $400 to low $300's. Perhaps Bob Johnson can assist here too.

PSS I've always had dialogue with the great reflective bears on SI. Here is one of my earlier posts:

Message 1967695



To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (55940)7/8/2000 3:01:14 PM
From: Rarebird  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116815
 
The Passion of a Great Bearish Faith has caused many Financial Ruin....

Technically speaking, the Gold market is in Chaos. Many of the E Wavers in regard to the gold market have been very wrong in regard to their forecasts this year. When you read them now, you get a lot of chaos, ambiguity and confusion in their analysis:

members.home.net

I think we need to take a fresh look at the fundamentals to get a glimpse of where Gold is headed. IMHO the danger in the Gold market lies in the perception that a soft landing is imminent. Woe to gold if a soft landing comes about. I think a soft landing is slim and the economic cycle has not been repealed.

The dollar will write the script for Gold.