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To: TREND1 who wrote (12670)7/8/2000 1:55:39 PM
From: Starlight  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 60323
 
Larry - Another thing that bothers me about a possible bear market ahead is that many investors took tremendous capital gains earlier this year. I doubt that many have set aside money to pay taxes, and instead have spent a good part of their gains or else reinvested them. When 2001 comes and they realize that tax time is near, I feel there will be a big sell-off in the market in general to raise tax money. Also, even those who have set aside tax money this year are probably waiting till NEXT year to do some more selling since they don't want to add to this year's gains. When Jan. 1 comes, they can sell and not worry about taxes for another year. Any way you look at it, I think the big gains of early this year are going to create big dives in a lot of stocks early NEXT year.

Just my opinion, of course.

Betty



To: TREND1 who wrote (12670)7/8/2000 8:22:14 PM
From: Craig Freeman  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 60323
 
Larry,

Thank you for keeping your posts short and to the point in recent times.

Please explain the basis upon which your site predicts short-term SNDK price movements. And ... whether such short-term predictions (aka TA) have any relationship to long-term trends (aka FA).

1) Agreed.

2) Agreed.

3) Say what? I have a college degree in this arena and your comments remain inobvious.

4) Say what? After 40 years, EVERYONE should know whatever you claim. What's NEW?

5) So what !?! A recent Smith-Barney report claimed to be predictive and it was met with great opposition. SNDK may not sell food or TP ... but the same could be said for 99% of all stocks.

Craig

reply to:

(1)Your FA work has shown me that SNDK is a great company.
(2)SNDK has a lock on a market, which is very important long term.
(3)But the books that I have read on Market Portfolio 101 shows how "market Risk" is also a driving force for a company.
(4) The SSB report shows how "most" semi companies have gone through these over building cycles for the last 40 years.
(5)Finally, Bob Brinker's latest newsletter($185/year) says it beautifully. When the Fed raise interest rates every worker has less money to spend on other things. And SNDK doesn't sell FOOD.

Larry Dudash



To: TREND1 who wrote (12670)7/8/2000 8:56:51 PM
From: Ausdauer  Respond to of 60323
 
Larry,

Finally, Bob Brinker's latest newsletter($185/year) says it beautifully. When the Fed raise interest rates every worker has less money to spend on other things. And SNDK doesn't sell FOOD(g).
_________________________________________________________________________

1) Maybe Bob Brinker will be getting less repeat subscribers in that case.

2) I made a mental note over Christmas in 1998. Abby Cohen said that consumer spending and the unemployment rate are linked closely in an inverse relationship. As an employed person I would say my paycheck fuels my purchasing power. I have a 30 year mortgage and my 1993 Ford Escort has been paid off for several years now.
I am not sure that increasing interest rates alone would curtail my spending habits.

3) Digital photography is a lot of fun. I wouldn't attempt to put a price tag on the enjoyment I and my friends & family have received from it. In fact, I can't think of any technology purchase I have enjoyed more than my digital camera. I suspect that many will think twice about spending a big chunk of change on a digital camera, but digital photography is an infectious, habit-forming and incurable disease. (Resistance is futile!)

4) I am attempting to design my own digital camera out of carrots, celery, rutabagas, and brussel sprouts.
If all else fails it will make a great vegetable salad.

Ausdauer