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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gopher Broke who wrote (119746)	7/8/2000 6:00:55 PM
From: HammerHead	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1573927

maybe if AMD can come out with Harry-Potter Athlon for Christmas season?:)

To: Gopher Broke who wrote (119746)	7/8/2000 6:02:46 PM
From: Joe NYC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1573927

Gopher, Do you have an opinion on whether AMD will be able to sell 7.2 million Athlons in Q4 while maintaining current ASPs? Why so pessimistic suddenly? I think AMD will improve ASP's significantly. This quarter will be a small preview, but Q3 and Q4 should rock, as far as ASP is concerned. Joe

To: Gopher Broke who wrote (119746)	7/9/2000 1:18:09 AM
From: Paul Engel	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 1573927

Gopher Brain - Re: "Do you have an opinion on whether AMD will be able to sell 7.2 million Athlons in Q4 while maintaining current ASPs" Yes - I have an opinion. My opinion is that AMD's Athlon ASP will have to - and WILL - drop dramatically in order for them to essentially ship as many AthWipers in Q4 as their Q2 total of roughly 4.5 million Kmart-62's and 1.8 million AthWipeys. AMD's OVERALL ASPs, however, should rise, as the per centage of AthWipeys increases. Most of AMD's market is still made up of cheap Kmart-62's - <$60 ASP - and AMD will have to keep dropping AthWipey prices as they attempt to substitute Kmart-62 sales with Athwipers. Another overriding concern is Intel's rapidly increasing volumes of >800 MHz CPUs. As their volumes rise, they will drop prices on existing CPUs as they then introduce ever faster (1.13 GHz) Pentium IIIs in this quarter (Q3). This will put more pressure on AMD to drop their AthWipey ASPs. Then, in late Q3 or early Q4, the Pentium 4 launch will have a dramatic effect on AMD pricing - negatively. AMD will drop AThWIpey pricing dramatically, as they will be once again in the position of competing on PRICE and NOT on performance. Even if AMD manages to launch their Muskrat, that too will be a "limited volume" CPU, and wil have minimal impact on overall AthWipey pricing - especially as the Muskrat will have to compete with the Pentium 4 for media and market attention and customer's dollars. Intel's Pentium 4 volume may not be large, but it will get most of the money from customers who want the best CPU available. AMD will again be left with their mantra - "best price/performance CPU", which translates to CHEAPER and CHEAPER AthWipers. Again, AMD's OVERALL ASPs should climb to above $100, but each AthWipey will drop in price TOWARDS $100 from above. Paul

To: Gopher Broke who wrote (119746)	7/9/2000 12:21:03 PM
From: niceguy767	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1573927

GopherBroke: Re: "Do you have an opinion on whether AMD will be able to sell 7.2 million Athlons in Q4 while maintaining current ASPs?" Comment: One of the most significant events in shaping both AMD's and INTC's microprocessor strategies over the near term was the 11th hour curveball thrown by MSFT in awarding the xbox contract to INTC over AMD...The silver lining to this last minute twist is that had AMD been awarded the contract, AMD'd have been hard pressed to deliver the required quantities without severely compromising its top-end strategy...the xbox fiasco cemented AMD's forward strategy, not only by avoiding "scorched earth" pricing demanded by the xbox contract (INTC's plight, now), but by providing for a rechanneling AMD's resources to the top-end of the marketplace...As a consequence, AMD is now clearly in position to make inroads into the "business place" niche, inroads that could ultimately result in a new AMD challenge of having to produce more than 7.2 million Athy's in Q4...Once inside the business place door, I would expect a snowball effect to take place...After all AMD now has the world's fastest microprocessor and now has a track record established over the past 8 months (i.e. compares exceedingly favourably to the track record of its primary competitor over the same 8 months)of being able to deliver the best "price/performance all-in systems" by a wide margin found in the marketplace today..."Business America" has taken note of AMD...It will be a very short time (i.e. long before Q4, imho) before "business America" takes action and the stampede to AMD microprocessors unfolds... Yes AMD will sell 7.2 million microprocessors in Q4 and yes Q4 ASP's will be higher than Q2's and Q3's as AMD continues to own the top-end..."Business America" wants the best (i.e the highest MHz and will pay a premium for the best...it's the American way) and AMD's Athlon technology is the best!!!