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Technology Stocks : Applied Micro Circuits Corp (AMCC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Warkentin who wrote (561)	7/8/2000 9:27:15 PM
From: Kayaker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1805

and i guess the investor must decide if the CSCO win out-weighs the NT order slowdown........seems like a no-brainer to me NT order slowdown? What slowdown? --------------------------------------------------- At the meeting, analysts said, Applied Micro gave guidance of 10% sequential growth in Nortel sales, Message 13843534 --------------------------------------------------- While NT may grow only 8-10% this quarter, any weakness is transitory and related to NT?s product transition - or put another way, higher than expected demand and reloading a potentially more potent product line for the future are causing an intraquarter issue. AMCC is providing standard chips into NT?s newer product lines-providing substantially higher dollar content per box. Look for NT to continue growing on an absolute basis but declining as a percent of total revenue. Message 13841561 --------------------------------------------------

To: Steve Warkentin who wrote (561)	7/8/2000 10:51:52 PM
From: Trader Dave	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1805

While there is a product transition slowdown in the rate of growth the win at cisco WOULD NOT offset loss of business at NT, if there were a loss of business...which there is not. NT is currently the most powerful systems vendor at the optical core. Cisco, JNPR and others are potential major players, but NT is the gorilla in this segment. But, the bottom line in all of this wild misunderstanding of the concept of a first derivative (it is not a SLOWDOWN! it is a TEMPORARY slowdown in the growth rate (aka first derivative of the growth) For the people that actually know what's going on, AMCC's position in NT's second generation oc-192 products is just as strong as its current position in NT's oc-48 products. In some cases amcc chips are part of JDSU modules designed into NT's products, but the most important issue is that AMCC's footprint is expanding rapidly and they have essentially 100% presence in all of the OC-192 vendors. If NT business grows at 80% compounded and is 45% of revenues and non-NT business grows at twice that rate, I would guess that NT's percentage of revenues will go down....D'OH! This silliness has created a compression in valuation that makes AMCC only wildly expensive, which is much less expensive than many comparables. TD