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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment-Sell when they're singing in the streets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pink Minion who wrote (224)	7/9/2000 3:14:19 PM
From: Math Junkie	Respond to of 276

There was quite a lot of "singing" back in January to April, which was the last time we saw new highs. Note that in past cycles, business continued to be strong for a while after stock prices peaked.

To: Pink Minion who wrote (224)	7/9/2000 3:49:26 PM
From: A. Wayne	Respond to of 276

Your comments are very good, but I don't think analysts need to be screaming in the streets for the semi stocks to be good. I don't need my semis to double in price every month (not saying you're advocating they should). That scares the hell out of me. I'm much more comfortable with 50%-100% per year. After the recovery from April started, there have actually been a number of analysts on CNNfn saying the semiconductor business is going to be booming for the next 2-3 years. Like you though, I know we need to keep a careful watch on this quarters earnings. This market is very fickle. Wayne

To: Pink Minion who wrote (224)	7/9/2000 3:54:08 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 276

Ex, look at the "good" I-net stocks, like YHOO, CMGI, AMZN, and you will see that this group has already a definite downturn and a bad one as well, in this cycle, they are not going to revive, and I would say most of these have seen their "lifetime" high early this year. Thus, songs about the I-net getting the semi's going are not going to be heard, they have been sung in February/March. Now, we are going to get rallies in the real high tech, but as far as the equipment sector is concerned, just a very nice rally but not a major additional leg up, IMHO. The time is simply "up", next year we'll have a bear market in general, IMHO, and cyclicals do not do very well in bear markets (they actually create huge buying opportunities). That does not mean that the next two quarters are not going to be worth playing, a move to $100 by VECO, or to $65 by CYMI is worth playing. I also think that BRKS and LRCX have both good 50% moves from here and the list goes on... Zeev