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To: Amy J who wrote (105405)	7/10/2000 6:24:05 AM
From: Amy J	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

RE: "However, I do not agree that the semi is seeing a peak." Threadsters, It may not have been clear in my previous post, so I'll repeat it: I do not agree with his final conclusion. I do not think the semi is reaching a peak. Too many indicators show the contrary to his findings IMHO. I think the demand is strong still and will continue to be strong. I think the biggest risk (for any company) is supplying the demand: can it be met and can enough be produced? I wonder how AMD is going to hold its market share if they hit a wall in their capacity, while Intel has the ability to expand their capacity to meet large demand. I concur TCs have dropped a lot in pricing, but I believe this price drop is because other suppliers have come on-line and rushed in for the 10X return. But, if I were an AMD investor, I'd checkout the underlying cause to the price drop, to make sure that it's not the cellular market (although that would be surprising), i.e. TC-->(cellular)--->memory===> impacts AMD. But if it it's: TC--->(new suppliers), then no impact to AMD. So, I think the report is a false alarm. But, I continue to give him credit for presenting the information on TCs as food for thought and consideration, unlike other analysts, even though I disagree with his opinion. Regards, Amy J

To: Amy J who wrote (105405)	7/11/2000 12:53:36 AM
From: Jules B. Garfunkel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

Amy, I'm sorry that you wrote such a long post, but wasn't it reported that the tantalum capacitors had a proclivity to catch on fire and that is why they were being replaced by the ceramic capacitors? Consequently, sales of the tantalum capacitors were dramatically off. (Now this is not my field of expertise, but why didn't Jon know that). Unfortunately, Jon was too anxious to be the first to make the call on what eventually will happen. Some day supply for semiconductors will catch up with demand. However, it will not be evidenced by what Jonathan Joseph reported last week. John took a gamble and lost... for this, I fault him. Regards, Jules