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Gold/Mining/Energy : Copper - analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tyc:> who wrote (149)	7/10/2000 1:25:38 PM
From: tyc:>	Respond to of 2131

I came across the following page which shows 1997 copper consumption (before the Asian Crisis) @ 16,309,000 tonnes and growing at a rate of 4.1%. marketdata.copper.org

To: tyc:> who wrote (149)	7/10/2000 3:21:40 PM
From: Robert Douglas	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2131

This growth will add >450,000 tonnes to demand next year ..... is there really that much idled capacity ? I hope you're right and demand does grow 450,000 tonnes next year. It's possible but is a touch on the optimistic side, IMO. As for idled capacity: A Bear Stearns report that I have estimates that there was 850,000 tonnes of capacity idled during 1998 and 1999. Of this, 170,000 tonnes has already come back on stream. Most of this is idled capacity is owned by BHP and Phelps Dodge and the report felt that some of it may not come back even with prices above $1.00. There are several new mines coming on stream in 2000 which should add 370,000 tonnes, according to the report. I'm trying to be conservative but don't discount your optimism. It is certainly well within reasonable forecasts. If LME stocks keep coming down every day, I think it bodes will for the future.