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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: niceguy767 who wrote (119966)	7/10/2000 5:53:21 PM
From: Joe NYC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1574848

Niceguy, Thinking about the Willy 1 and Willy 2, it occurred to me that the hardware enthusiast sites will not recommend (should not recommend with clear conscience), since the systems will not be upgradeable in the future. A non-upgradeable product that has a life expectancy of about 6 months will not be popular with people who upgrade often. Joe

To: niceguy767 who wrote (119966)	7/11/2000 1:36:02 AM
From: Petz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1574848

niceguy, re:<by rough estimate, incremental earnings increase at about the rate of $0.10 per share per 100,000 incremental Athy's> Half of each 100K are replacing K6-2's at an ASP only $40 higher ($95 Duron vs $55 K6-2) If the other half (TBirds) have an ASP of $240, thats a total of $14M additional revenue. But there's $1M additional cost to make the new TBirds @$20 each, so the increased profit is only $13M per 100K incremental Athy's. Before taxes you are at about 7.5 cents per share, after taxes, 5 cents. So going from 1.8 to 3.6M spry athy's should add $1.35 pre-tax, 0.90 after tax. Going from 3.6 to 7.2 doubles these increments. If we assume Q2 is $1.15 (taxed), Q3 and Q4 would be $2.05 and $3.85, a total of $8.20 for the year. We have to subtract the increasing depreciation, slightly increasing R&D and two thirds of the increase in Q4 may be Durons rather than TBirds. But we haven't even counted increasing revenues from flash, so $8 per share (taxed) seems highly do-able. Petz