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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Road Walker who wrote (11218)	7/10/2000 7:20:43 PM
From: YONSU	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

John, the big difference is that Worldcom/Sprint is a direct consumer play, where DOJ worries about how the consumer is treated, pricing, and product. With JDSU the consumer is not directly effected, though JDSU's consumer's are other companies needing what they produce. The real concern is overlap of products to give most of the competitive advantage or monopoly to one of the products produced. This merger has one or two concerns which may come to play, but getting optical product to the users is the foremost thought from JDSU's clients. We shall see if DOJ feels the pendulum has swung too far, the experienced management of JDSU is optimistic again that they have the knowledge and data to convince and support their view on this merger to DOJ. Yonsu

To: Road Walker who wrote (11218)	7/10/2000 7:29:24 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 24042

My take is that they said "what the heck, lets give it a try". I don't know, I kind of doubt that they'd make such a move so lightly. Pat probably has a better perspective, but Scifres for one doesn't strike me as the type of CEO who just tries something like this just for the hell of it, with a cavalier attitude. I think they mean business, and I'd guess they've done some due diligence on what it would take to pass Justice. That probably includes some divestitures. I didn't follow WCOM/FON that closely, but my vague understanding was that WCOM didn't want to give up Sprint's long-distance biz, which was a dealstopper. If they'd just gone after wireless and let LD be spun off, the outcome could have been different. In any case, the market's reaction is kind of interesting. On the one hand, SDLI remains at a serious discount to the implied value, indicating skepticism that it will go through. On the other hand, JDSU took a big hit, as if there is indeed anticipation of a merger. Probably reflective of some of both sentiments (skepticism and anticipation), I guess. It's unlikely they would say it would be bad for customers. Actually, it probably would have some benefits, given the severe supply shortages. If customers can't get product, then they can't roll out. That hurts them. A bigger, combined manufacturer should be capable of pushing more product due to scale efficiencies and such. I'm not at all saying the deal will go through; just that it might, and that JDSU/SDLI mgmt. are not flakes who would go public with something like this if they were not serious and had not reason to think there's a decent chance of approval. After all, they, like the talking heads on CNBC, are also aware that JDSU just completed a merger, and that WCOM/FON got turned down. They won't look particularly good if the deal fails, so they have an interest in trying to see it through.

To: Road Walker who wrote (11218)	7/10/2000 7:41:10 PM
From: jmanvegas	Respond to of 24042

John: The interesting thing is the date of the closure of the deal - December. The election will be over and if Bush wins, Reno is gone and a lame duck Attorney General. A Bush administration, IMO, would never have let the DOJ break up MSFT. jmanvegas

To: Road Walker who wrote (11218)	7/10/2000 8:30:38 PM
From: pat mudge	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

IF the deal were to go through, it would create a powerhouse. My take is that they said "what the heck, lets give it a try". Sort of like buying a lotto ticket, you know you won't win, but if you do... If you think Scifres or Foster would throw a million bucks at a lottery-ticket, you don't know either. When SDL bought PIRI, they were advised by one of PIRI's largest customers, LU, that it would be to everyone's benefit. I suspect SDLI went into this deal with the same knowledge of how their customers would react. Everything I've heard and read indicates the customers want more products and want them faster. The merger will allow this to happen. Pat