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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mani1 who wrote (614)	7/12/2000 8:09:14 PM
From: kash johal	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Mani, re:". If anyone for any reason is banned it will be posted as well as the link to the post which resulted in the ban. That way everyone knows exactly what is going on. If I get enough objection to any particular action, I will change it." I would prefer that there be a thread discussion and even a vote before a poster is banned. And such action should be a last resort and only taken after some repeated offenses. regards, Kash

To: Mani1 who wrote (614)	7/12/2000 8:39:01 PM
From: Scumbria	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

Mani, Is Fuchi allowed to post? Scumbria

To: Mani1 who wrote (614)	7/12/2000 9:12:48 PM
From: EricRR	Respond to of 275872

AMD -Why we don't need faith: 1) Valuation- forward PE is (not "will" be) under 20. And maybe under 10! 2) Technology- The Athlon core is a winner. As long as Intel plans to keep the P3 around, it's a sure thing. 2) Technology- Willy is coming, but did anyone really expect AMD to ever become the clear CPU LEADER? Is that priced into AMD's stock? (No, look at INTC vs AMD market cap ~30 times greater) AMD has a promising CPU portfolio for the nest 12 months, including Mustang, Corvette and Sledgehammer. We've gone over this many times. 3) Technology- For the first time, AMD has significant process advantage over Intel. AMD also owns the worlds most advanced semi FAB. 4) Management- Yes management. When was the foundation for the current success laid? When Ruiz arrived in January? Of course not, what we see now is the result of decisions that were made years ago. The EV6 bus, the MOT copper process, putting together a first class design team, paying for a FAB when that was required to lift your company above being a bit player. AMD has shown that it can make the right decisions and investments, even with limited resources. Why should it fail now, when rolling in cash? AMD is not the first company to transition from being an imitator to being a leader. 5) Partners- OEMs want AMD to succeed, even DELL (customer or not). Lower CPU prices add to OEM bottom lines. Such aligned interests will help AMD break into the business market. AMD won't have to fight this PR battle alone. So why is AMD's price not higher? Fear of course! Fund managers can be just as afraid as we are. Lets face it, AMD is still in the emotional dog house. No amount of logic can help- only time can correct that. Scumbia says that there has been no "big" new news the last few months. That may have some truth. Nevertheless, the best thing I've heard (after the 100,000 1GHz parts sold) is the bond buyback, and its timing. Lowering dept will allow a new class of investors- pension types. Furthermore, dateing the end of the acceptance period to the hour before earnings is a very bullish sign. If AMD had bad news (or "average" news- after all, bond investors can think too!), they could have bought the bonds back at a better price by waiting a few days. I can see no other interpretation for such timing. I've voiced my suspicions vis a vi SSB downgrading just as they manage AMD's bond buyback. Lets face it, in the short term, the downgrade helps AMD the company. (although not us option traders!) SSB is a bond power house. AMD will have the need for more bond services (buy and sell) in the future. SSB exists for the purpose of making money, not giving away investment advice. I think I'm justified in being cynical. I have one concern left (yes, for my july calls!)- that investors might try to dump Intel after (or just before) its earnings, and that that might bring AMD down. I have some cash on the side waiting for this opportunity if it happens. Like others, I've made a lot on AMD this year, and I'm not afraid to take this measured risk. (risk of owning july calls, and of maybe getting more) Good luck to all!