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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Prophet who wrote (47226)	7/14/2000 10:58:24 AM
From: capt rocky 1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

there is a completely unfounded rumor that rmbs has another settlement with a dram manufacturer. take it for what it is worth. it may explain the pop this am. i know if i was short i wouldn't want that posistion for the week end and then have the deal announced. remember --this is only a rumor. check the posts on yahoo. yeah, i'm long. rocky

To: The Prophet who wrote (47226)	7/14/2000 11:45:27 AM
From: Richard Habib	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

>You're forgetting controllers, CPUs, logic chips, etc. Plus, DRAM estimate is too low. Also, RMBS probably has other rabbits in the hat. Royalty will be on closer to 90%.< Actually I'm not. The DRAM market is the DRAM market and you can include DRAM controllers in the overall market estimate as Tate does in Feb cc. I actually believe RMBS will end up adjusting the roy rate to reach settlement with the major manufacturers. It's a reasonable assumption that an overall rate of 1.5% will result. According to Tate in Feb the DRAM market including controllers will be $100B in 2002/2003. If you look at DRAM market estimates in future years vs actuals you'll find estimates are consistently optimistic. Tate is using the most optimistic estimates published. It's reasonable to assume actuals will be less. $55B may be a little low but represents a 40% increase over last cycle top. The answer likely lies between low end estimates of $40B and high end estimates of $100B. Regarding CPUs and chips I assume you mean chip to chip interface market. In Dec Tate said roy for this market are a couple of years out. In Feb he noted this was a $150B market but didn't change his estimate of when roy might begin to flow to RMBS. He made a point of noted the length of time it took RDRAM roy to begin to flow. I included about .30/share for this market. Regarding the percentage of the market RMBS will have. 75% is a reasonable assumption. 90% isn't. It's estimated that PCs will only represent 25-30% of the chip market by 2002. You could extrapolate that to the DRAM market & still be ballpark. Of that Intel estimates that by 2004 notebooks may make of 75% of PCs shipped. You can extrapolate that down but RMBS presently has no notebook offering. To have notebook DRAM rev by 2002 it would need a product and significant penetration fairly soon. That's not a reasonable assumption at this point. Servers will likely remain mostly SDRAM in 2002 considering that Foster, Intel's Willimette server chip set will be SDRAM. A significant of the overall DRAM market will likely be in consumer handhelds and phones. Perhaps as much as 30%. Overall 75% of the market is likely a little optimistic. As to rabbits I don't invest in rabbit. When in the military I was fed rabbit instead of fried chicken. I've stayed away from rabbit ever since. Rich