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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (3939)7/15/2000 9:29:25 AM
From: Terry Whitman  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
G'Morning HB- or I suppose G'afternoon in Austria.

The morning paper brings a chart of the PPI on the front of the Biz section. It clearly shows a blue sky breakout for PPI. The retail sales did too.

The bond SHOULD be tanking. Why is it not? Is this a peak in inflation? Could be, but recent peaks have lasted 2-3 months before being taken out.

XAU looking good, huh? <s>



To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (3939)7/15/2000 7:32:59 PM
From: yard_man  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
electricity prices aren't that simple and not always tied to costs (e.g. on summer days when generation is tight the prices are often as much as 100X costs) ... natural gas generation is not the marginal cost of the next MWh all the time ...

the cost of electricity over an annual period is highly dependent on what a utility's fortunes are over a relatively short period of time -- ~20 days or so (when prices are pretty much unrelated to costs of gen)

Most energy is still generated from baseload coal units -- NG price increases will have an impact but not as much as you might think just looking at the increase in the price of natural gas (doing an impact study where I work right now -- it's not going to make a huge difference for us -- others will be a little worse off)

Some of the IOU have pass-though clauses -- they may inflate their claims -- but it is not their major fuel source in most instances

the big impact will be in the heating season -- folks, business's that heat with natural gas

so maybe 1st or second quarter of next year you will start seeing some impacts ...