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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Mosher who wrote (27995)	7/15/2000 4:14:10 PM
From: Hands Off	Respond to of 54805

DLM PHD, that was a very well thought out and written post. Thanks. I wish I could say I agree or disagree but I don't have the knowledge/ability. Maybe if I read your 2 posts 10 more times. But thanks again for all the food for thought. PS wish I could say my dreams were as productive. If I wake at 3:30 it is because the dog is slobbering over me. Edit. PPS I lived in B'ham but was born up north. Maybe thats it <g> Marshall

To: Don Mosher who wrote (27995)	7/15/2000 4:58:34 PM
From: Uncle Frank	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

>> In his double-edged style of "welcome "diplomacy, UF said, or so I took him to mean, the same thing, "if you claim to be a G&Ker, show us your portfolio." Maybe a little <gg>, but I was mostly welcoming you, and trying to encourage you to fill out some of the fields in your profile. It helps the gang get an idea of your style and areas of strength and interest. I guess I was too subtle <lol>. Your post on JDSU made for fascinating reading, but we always seem to come to the same conclusion - strong King (or Kingilla as you've defined it). At some point, though, should the ftc continue to allow them to acquire their competitors, they will develop enough monopolistic strength to be of interest to me and the doj. uf

To: Don Mosher who wrote (27995)	7/16/2000 10:55:39 AM
From: Apollo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Don: Thank you for taking the time to share your thoughts and hypotheses related to JDSU. As a JDSU shareholder, I'm hoping you're hypothesis about it's Kingilla nature is true. Many others here have speculated that JDSU was more than a king; including Downsouth. one premise of my argument will be that JDSU, by acquisitions, has reached a critical mass through "owning" a proprietary network of applied scientists and engineers. Others have speculated that JDSU's intangible strength is "ownership" of the scientists. Arguments against this have been that no company Owns its talent, and talent easily leaves for startups or for companies offering more. I think you ideas are well thought out, but measuring JDSU's intellectual talent (the numerator) and comparing it to the total Optoelectronics intellectual talent available (the denominator) is what is necessary to best understand JDSU's supposed dominance of the intellectual talent........and its reinforcing/sustaining/growing CAPs. How does one measure the strength and totality of JDSU's intellectual talent, as it relates to the total intellectual talent available? The pace of modular development would seem to be a very indirect surrogate for this measurement. Nevertheless, you may be completely right. And I hope you are. Very much appreciate the time you took to put your thoughts onto cyberspace. Apollo

To: Don Mosher who wrote (27995)	8/5/2000 1:30:09 PM
From: pat mudge	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

One test of my hypothesis that JDSU is, indeed, currently a Kingilla will be found in the DOJ's coming decision on the merger with SDLI. Your analysis is amazing thorough, however without SDL, JDS will not be competitive in Raman or Arrayed Wave Guides (AWGs), both key technologies in the 10Gb/s and higher markets. If the DOJ turns down the merger, someone else will take them out and become the market leader. The key factor is not that their technology is proprietary but that they're being designed into the leaders' products before anyone else. The design process is lengthy and once a company is entrenched, it's difficult to force them out. Without SDL, JDSU will be a player, but they won't be the leader in advanced solutions. [LU is to JDSU as NT is to SDLI.] I'm not saying SDL is a gorilla or king or court jester or any other label you care to coin. But I am suggesting they have the first-to-market advantage in several key technologies necessary for advanced DWDM systems. There's a reason Josef is paying a king's ransom for what Don has. I further submit that while the DOJ process is running its course, Lucent and Alcatel will be spinning off their optical networking units and positioning themselves to bid for SDL should it fall out. Go ahead and make plans for a coronation, but be prepared to postpone the festivities if the DOJ doesn't cooperate. The date to watch is August 30 when the 60-day comment period for the DOJ consent settlement in the JDSU-ETEK merger is complete. Merger Insight says, "No interesting industry-generated comments have been filed thus far, but we expect suppliers, competitors, and customers to comment before the settlement is finalized August 30." Comments are filed with Judge Henderson in the Northern District of California Federal District Court, and will give analysts and arbatrageurs an indication of how vendors and/or competitors are likely to respond to the SDLI-JDSU merger. Pat

To: Don Mosher who wrote (27995)	8/6/2000 12:30:04 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Of course, I can still hope Phase 4 is a patented soliton solution. I haven't heard anything about JDSU and solitons...is there a basis for considering this likely as Phase IV? Given that Phases I through III were broad business strategies, I'd kind of expect IV to follow in that tradition and not just be a (yet-to-be-commercialized) lab technology. My thoughts were that JDSU moves further up the food chain (i.e., beyond modules to increasingly complex "super-modules", but perhaps retaining the "module" name for its political correctness [i.e., they don't want to be doing "systems" as that competes with customers, but what might happen when you take the integration metaphor far enough?]), or that perhaps they have a new focus on a hot emerging market like metro (you know--the new new thing). As for long haul, one would think a good part of the premium for SDLI is going to buy its lead in Raman, so if JDSU had a credible alternative strategy (inc. Raman) the merger might not have been so enticing. Pat has mentioned Raman and AWGs, to which I would add SDL's expertise in 980 nm. We can imagine the DOJ will allow the merger to go through in some form, but the issue comes down to what the sacrificial lamb will be (this we can expect). In the case of ETEK, they just had to nix some exclusive-supply agreements without shedding off any businesses. With the SDL merger, the DOJ is more likely to ask for some operational divestitures. One of the questions is whether JDSU might give up its own 980 nm biz if that is what DOJ requires. We can only speculate at this point, but as the story unfolds, we should all get an education in the competitive landscape--first from the comments of JDSU customers which are expected by end-August as Pat mentioned; and later, as we (presumably) learn what kind of measures the DOJ will require for merger approval; and finally, as we learn whether JDSU will accept those measures. If they agree to sell or otherwise compromise their own 980 nm business, I think that says a lot about what they see in SDL. BTW, I would guess this is the last merger of substance (market cap-wise) that JDSU does which is accretive. After SDL is gone, there will be a bunch of small companies carrying ridiculous market caps on small revs with little or no profit. Wait, it's already like that...