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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (38367)	7/16/2000 2:25:19 AM
From: Eric	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

I wonder why we seem to attract "Gloom and Doomers" on this thread?

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (38367)	7/16/2000 5:56:11 AM
From: JDN	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

Dear Uncle Frank: I read these Doom and Gloomers but then I look at many small and mid cap stocks selling at what I believe are very low multiples (I know cause I own some of them unfortunately), and I wonder if its really true the market is so over valued?? I think about the new technology out and coming out in the near future (far more than anything I have ever seen in my 30plus years of investing) and I wonder how do you value something like that? I know there are and have been "pockets" of irrational exhuberism as AG would say, but am not sure the entire market should be damned in that statement. What do you think? JDN

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (38367)	7/16/2000 7:11:43 PM
From: bambs	Respond to of 77400

Uncle Frank, I have considered the potential impact of a 50% loss, in this over valued market, to the quality of their lives. My mother and my inlaws are around 60. They are set up well enough. If they get 7% for the next ten years they will be just fine. If they lose 50% in the next 2 years they will be in trouble. The market has been over performing for the past 10 + years. History says we are do for a correction or at least due to underperform for the next 15. 1965 to 1982 had zero returns in the market. 1982 until now has been great. They have done very well. It's time for them to play it safe. S&P has an average P/E of 35 historically it holds around 15. The risk is too great. When the economy slows earnings growth will slow and the P/E 's will have to come into line. If one were to lose 50% in the next 2 years and stay in the market and only get the historical average return of 12% it will take 8 years from now just to get your money back. The bond holder will have a double in 10 years. The potential gain from here for long term investors is not worth the risk. It's that simple. This is a gamblers market. Every market correction of a bubble has resulted in a bear trap. That's what we are in now. IBM and MSFT this week...you can bet they will be talking about a great year end coming. I think that reality will set in just after the election. Maybe even Oct. It's hard to pinpoint when it will happen but I know that it will. 50% with in two years from todays levels. GE, CSCO, IBM, INTC, GTW, DELL, ORCL....you name it. Some will continue to slide for a 70% loss in the years to follow. As for fighting the tape....I never do it. I buy and sell these overvalued stocks as the momentum dictates. The problem is that longterm investors like my parents don't trade. They buy and hold. They buy funds. Fund managers will always lie to them. They will never tell them to pull out their money. Wall Street is in the business of selling stock. They manage funds and take a fee. They will never say get out of my fund. They lie lie lie. The are times that one has to protect their future and play safe. This is one of those times. I'm not a doom and gloomer. You longs always try to jab people like myself for using reason. For looking at the facts. IBM hasn't grow revenue in 5 years. In that time they have gone from trading at 4 times sales to 20 times sales. It's sick! INTC isn't much better. Dell is a joke. You go ahead and buy and hold. My family and I will sleep well and end up ahead in the years to come. Bambs