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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Mosher who wrote (28068)	7/17/2000 8:19:39 AM
From: DownSouth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

It is too late to start a new company from scratch that can compete with the depth and breadth of JDSU. You can't find the expertise, work around the patents, take the testing time to develop products that meet high availability standards, and the like. They already have a lock on breadth of components that insures a lock on modules. Any new company seeking to equal JDSU's breadth and depth of components would crawl while JDSU flies ahead. Now that was a giant leap of faith! All you need is a discontinuous innovation that JDSU, naturally, refuses to aggressively develop; a pissed off scientist or two who sees the opportunity; and a venture capitalist to fund it. If you need examples, the tech graveyard is full of just that scenario resulting in the falling of the undefeatable.

To: Don Mosher who wrote (28068)	7/17/2000 11:00:10 AM
From: Apollo	Respond to of 54805

Don: JDSU's Critical Mass of Networked Scientists That was a very well-written, passionate and persuasive description of why you believe JDSU to be unassailable. Because your contention will prove out (or not) in prospective fashion, we have only to hang in there a few years to see how things play out. In the meantime, I sincerely hope you have the interest and fortitude to stay active here on the G&K Thread during that time period, so that we might all benefit from your thinking and perspective. I would urge you to fill out your personal profile in more depth. I, for one, am wondering what kind of Ph.D writes and thinks as you do. I would also invite you to become a regular participant here, since, in reading between the lines, it sounds as though you have been following JDSU for a long time and can add to our group knowledge of this Kingilla. Welcome to the thread. Apollo

To: Don Mosher who wrote (28068)	7/17/2000 12:12:18 PM
From: StockHawk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

>>Such a sharing of ideas, coupled with an R&D budget that doubles in absolute size each year, surely produces creative movement up the multiple learning curves...<< Don, I agree with you, but I would also insert a bit of caution regarding this conclusion. The history of innovation has demonstrated that often, the biggest company with the biggest R&D budget does not always product the most significant breakthroughs, and even when they do, they do not always recognize what they have. Many reasons, politics, fiefdom, bureaucracy, status quo maintenance, etc cause this. While I am not suggesting that this is the fate of JDSU I would suggest that network effect innovation is not always a foregone conclusion. Like so many other aspects of the companies we invest in, it is an area that we need to monitor on an ongoing basis, without building up a false sense of security. StockHawk