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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Scumbria who wrote (1011)	7/17/2000 9:35:27 PM
From: dougSF30	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

niceguy, I agree with Scumbria, I hope you haven't wagered too much on $120 by Friday close... That would take $2 earnings and no cuss words from Greenspan on Thursday to materialize, IMHO. Doug

To: Scumbria who wrote (1011)	7/17/2000 10:07:13 PM
From: minnow68	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

Scumbria, You wrote "I'd like to try drinking some of the water from out where you live! Could you send me a bottle?" Seriously, I believe that $120 a share by the end of the week is possible. First, we would have to have total and utter blow out earnings ($2.00+). I consider this possible but with a probability no higher than 0.15. Secondly, we would need an extremely favorable reaction to those earnings. I put the probability of that type of reaction at about .1. This leads me to believe we have about one chance in 65 that AMD will hit $120 this week. That is certainly better odds than a lottery ticket, but I'm not counting my money. Did you see the AMD L2 cache article that JC referenced? It turns out that there is an L1 victim buffer and data is only moved to L2 in idle cycles unless the victim buffer is full (which AMD says almost never happens in real software). The other interesting thing to me, if I read it correctly, is that the typical case L2 latency is 11 cycles. This is 3 cycles for the L1 to miss and then 8 cycles for the L2 lookup. If they began L2 lookup before the L1 miss, it appears that we would have 8 cycle latency at the expense of significantly higher power consumption. In any case, if you haven't read the paper, I highly recommend it. It really clears up how AMD structured the caches. Mike

To: Scumbria who wrote (1011)	7/18/2000 1:29:31 AM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

<I'd like to try drinking some of the water from out where you live! Could you send me a bottle?> Ah, don't be spoilsport - the whole thread would want to jump on you! Don't you think it is fun predicting a event outside three standard deviations - sometimes you may hit it. Try it by buying a lotto ticket. As the jingle goes "Somebody gotto lotto - might as well be you." P.S.: I do agree the odds of AMD getting to 120 before expiration are far better than lotto. Nevertheless, I am betting against such a move - started today by writing some calls on my trading position acquired at around 77. If the position is called, that's cool, I will happily take a large profit for a few weeks work.