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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Warren Gates who wrote (11530)	7/20/2000 12:32:56 AM
From: Joseph Shah	Respond to of 24042

I have traded and watched AOL and YHOO before and after they joined S&P 500. I absolutely agree your outlook. Mutual Fund managers traded exactly what you described on these Big Market Cap S&P 500 additions. And the history always repeats in Wall Street because almost all traders do not like to trade against what the history laid.

To: Warren Gates who wrote (11530)	7/20/2000 1:20:31 AM
From: John Waddell, Ph.D	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

Warren, or anyone, can you help me out with this? I can’t find a downside to owning JDSU between now and 4pm next Wednesday. Is there any chance that JDSU will peak prior to then? If so, what would cause this? (In addition to the excellent points you made, JDSU is a popular, momentum stock.) If not, where is the downside risk? This is as close to a license to print money as we are ever going to get in the market as far as I can tell. It is the Greater Fool theory institutionalized. (All puns intended.) One could have bought shares in BRCM anytime between the announcement and five minutes before the bell on inclusion day and still made money! I think YHOO started going down about 3:45. Everyone knows this now. Under normal circumstances, the market overshoots and there is a price at which buyers disappear. This can’t happen here. Great big fools are going to be buying 70 million shares in the next week or so at whatever price. JDSU could go to 400 between now and next Wed. and all that would happen is that the institutions would have to buy more of it, because it’s new market cap would represent a higher percentage of the S&P. What are the forces that will keep JDSU from going to 400 at 3:59 on Wed.? (I don’t think it will, but I don’t understand what there is to hold the price down.) In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see changes in how additions to the S&P are handled after this. JDSU is very big and the public has become quite savvy. This method is a losing proposition for the index funds. JDSU may indeed go down 12% after inclusion, but from what lofty level? TIA.