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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: t2 who wrote (11602)	7/20/2000 7:00:05 PM
From: Baton	Respond to of 24042

T2: Do you think JDSU will be a little less volatile after it gets in the S&P and all of the big funds have to hold it? JDSU has done two things for me: 1) Greatly increased my personal wealth. 2) Given me an iron stomach. I really think we are ready for a major break-out. I expect 6-10 point gains for the next three to four days. Remember when it was at the old high of $150? We were expecting another split announcement then, so why not now as we approach the highs again? Baton

To: t2 who wrote (11602)	7/20/2000 9:09:40 PM
From: MCF	Respond to of 24042

t2 Excellent review,I am a fellow long termer on JDSU.I am not going anywhere even though JDSU has not been taking off as of the last 3-4 months.I would expect that if the SDLI deal goes through this will offer not a "corner on the optical market "space,but it would offer huge market share(combined) in a rapidly growing segment of the network infrastructure ,being optical switches. Surf@60:)

To: t2 who wrote (11602)	7/20/2000 9:13:14 PM
From: Nichols	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 24042

Hey t2- you got your S&P 500. Now, you're not gonna start pumping stock split now, are ya???

To: t2 who wrote (11602)	7/20/2000 11:43:30 PM
From: Warren Gates	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

Currently the market is valuing the combined ETEK, JDSU and SDLI at about $160 billion, roughly as much as the market peak in March. So what has happened since then, FO companies like GLW and NT have broken to new highs, 2 outstanding quarters from SDLI, 1 great quarter and another 1 coming from JDSU/ETEK, a few more aquisitions that are paying off. The market gives a premium to the leaders and a lot of them are starting to break out. No reason not to give it to JDSU/SDLI. After all, the merger of the 3 was something on everybody's wish list to begin with. With the S&P addition, another twist is added to the merger. You could just stick it out with SDLI and assume more risk if the merge falls apart in exchange for an extra 10-15% return. Or stick it out with JDSU. If merger falls apart JDSU gets $1 billion and recovers what it was 'lost' since the announcement. If merger gets approved, JDSU gets a pop because S&P fund will have to buy extra JDSU shares, $40 billion worth assuming SDLI closes at that estimated level. Probably will be closer to $50 billion when the smoke clears.

To: t2 who wrote (11602)	7/21/2000 3:32:34 AM
From: JH	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 24042

<Got rid of all 8,400 shares of JDSU> Dear everyone, since I don't have a whole lot of time, I will try to briefly answer your questions collectively. 1) SDLI - mkt cap of 33B vs JDSU cap of 120B. Not likely the tail will wag the dog. The deal is not "done" yet - it won't consummate for another six months or so! BTW, the conversion discount since the announcent has fluctuated between 14% and 11%, closing yesterday at 12%. Doesn't say a whole lot, except that the market, at this point, thinks that the odds of it being completed are pretty good. But count on this discount to swing wildly. BTW - SDLI's stock price has also "gone to the moon" in the short run - I'm not a buyer at these levels. 2) Hey folks - I am not condemning JDSU! Ever heard of "lightening up" before summer vacation? I didn't say "I've liquidated my entire portfolio into 100% cash". 3) For my put option purchase, short term means ONE DAY. I paid $3-7/8 for the July 130 puts. No dough unless the underlying is at $126-1/8 or lower at expiration 4:00 PM. If a downdraft materialized, I'll be out in a flash. 4) Don't ask me whether the market will be up or down (and by how much) tomorrow, next week, in three weeks, etc. Ask the almighty one upstairs. 5) Candlesticks on JDSU looks bullish? Which book on Japanese candlesticks are you reading? Go to the glossary and look up "Hanging Man" and tell me if it's bullish... Let's talk about probabilities. Something to think about (albeit a very simplstic example): Suppose you were given a six-faced dice and were told that you would double your net worth if you rolled any number except 6, with which you'd lose ALL your money. Would you take the bet? Even with probabilities heavily weighed in our favor, 99% would not choose to take this bet. Our aversion to downside risk is highly skewed, and rightly so. Should it be much different with the stock market?