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Technology Stocks : BMC Software -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (1295)	7/21/2000 9:24:55 PM
From: john dodson	Respond to of 1492

Yep. If there is a "rumor" phase to this, it would inevitably start moving up. On the other hand, if and when this happens, big blue would be smart to give a little bit extra premium to get a deal done pretty quickly. BMCS would be $30 again in nothing flat if rumors like this started leaking out. Then emboldened BMCS shareholders would demand substantially more than that. =-} Then again it depends on how low BMCS sinks. If it sinks to $12, a $25 offer would be more than double. All speculation and supposition at this point, though... -John

To: michael97123 who wrote (1295)	7/21/2000 9:37:22 PM
From: john dodson	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 1492

BMCS has just under $7/share in sales (using data from year ending March, 2000 of ~$1.7 billion in revenues divided by ~ 246.5 million shares). Based on today's closing price of $18 3/4, BMCS is currently trading at about 2.7 x sales. 5 x sales ~= $34/share 6 x sales ~= $41/share 7 x sales ~= $48/share Depends on how much IBM would want BMCS, if at all. 6 x sales is not unreasonably high, though, even if it is only 1/2 the 52 week high! -John