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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Math Junkie who wrote (35886)	7/22/2000 11:37:04 PM
From: TraderGreg	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

Pardon my ignorance, as I am new to semi sector, but is an 18% pullback in 4 days typical when the Book to Bill is so slightly reduced? Was there not a time a couple years back when they stopped publishing that ratio? TG

To: Math Junkie who wrote (35886)	7/23/2000 10:58:09 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Nice summary, thanks for posting it here as I also don't frequent cult threads. I believe the long term growth rate for the industry has been about 30%. This is probably about 2% per month (all rough figures). Your 1.8% number is then just about right back on trend after a slow May. What I find impressive is that given all the labor shortages here in the Silicon Valley, that the companies continue to grow shipments so fast and say they could grow shipments even faster if there were not some shortages of critical parts (as reported by LRCX and Agilent). I like Gotfried's backlog chart geocities.com The way so many trade on momentum, it would seem that when the companies are adding to backlog it would be safe to buy and then lighten up when backlog is in decline. Of course, the market might have already turned by this time so you miss the bottom. I got some LRCX on the last trip to $24 and I wonder if it will hold this level on this trip?