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Technology Stocks : Kulicke and Soffa -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (3940)	7/23/2000 6:29:06 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5482

Donald, Now that we know "they" can do anything they want to do, at any time they want to do it, under any conditions of revenue and earnings, good or bad, a different strategy has to be pursued to make money in the market that does not depend on rational thinking. This is dangerous to even consider. Doing so makes you no more than a momentum player, someone who buys on an uptick and sells on a downtick. It makes everything you know about a company irrelevant. Over time, KLIC's value will be realized, along with LRCX and all of the other depressed tech names that are providing the underlying infrastructure for the 21st Century. You must remember we are looking at a window on the market which is very short. Keep perspective and add to positions when you can. Don't get caught up in the day to day gyrations. Of all of the Billionaires, not one got there by daytrading. BK, Long and Strong

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (3940)	7/23/2000 6:45:37 PM
From: Red Dragon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5482

To me, there is a very simple, rational explanation. Basically, investors are thinking, "Wow, that was a blowout quarter KLIC just had. But gee, I'm kind of worried the top of the cycle may be approaching. Maybe KLIC will continue to have 1 or 2 more record quarters, but the end might be approaching, and I better get out while I can. I stuck around too long on the last cycle and I'm not going to be the last one on the sinking ship for this cycle." Now, whether the top occurs within 6 months, or 2 years is completely irrelevant. No one knows. Not the analysts. Not the insiders. Not investors. What does matter is right now a lot of investors think the top might be sooner rather than later. So the only way KLIC and the rest of the semis are going to pull up again is to turn investor sentiment around. Not an easy task. The current sellers aren't being irrational. For whatever reason, they think the cycle top is approaching, so they're getting out. If that's what one believes, then it's very rational to sell. You can't fault them for that. If you can fault the current sellers, it's that they might be wrong thinking the top is approaching. If the top really does come in calendar year 2000, then these investors would have done the right thing. If not, then they miss out. They are just acting on their beliefs. I did the same thing when I got out several months ago.