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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark Madden who wrote (8494)	7/24/2000 12:03:53 PM
From: LK2	Respond to of 9256

A clearer wording of what is meant by the downturn in PC sales is given in the article below. Slowing PC sales actually refers to slowing growth, not an actual downturn in sales. Part of the explanation given by the PC makers for the slowing growth is that parts are not readily available to make the PCs. And the hard drive makers (which is one of the parts that go into a PC) are now saying they can't get all the parts they need (chips, whatever) to make the hard drives. As for supply/demand, the hard drive makers will use the available parts to make the more expensive drives first, where the most profit is. And the desktop drives, which are the cheaper drives, will get the leftovers. Regards, Larry FOR PERSONAL USE ONLY >>>>>> ====== biz.yahoo.com Monday July 24, 9:53 am Eastern Time Personal computer shipments' growth slows down - study NEW YORK, July 24 (Reuters) - Growth in unit shipments of personal computers in the second quarter slowed to half what it was in the same period a year ago, which could signal a cooling off of sales growth in U.S. and European markets, research firm International Data Corp. said in a report released on Monday. ``It's attributed to overall moderation in mature markets like the U.S and Europe,'' said International Data Corp. analyst Bruce Stephen, who said worldwide PC unit shipments grew 14.5 percent year-over-year in the second quarter, compared to 28.7 percent a year ago. ``It's also because we're coming out of some commercial market sluggishness in the U.S.,'' he said, referring to slow sales of computers to businesses around the time of the Year-2000 date changeover, when they were busy updating systems. Other factors cited by IDC included slow adoption of Microsoft Corp. (NasdaqNM:MSFT - news) operating system Windows 2000. ``Corporate America is still slow to adopt Windows 2000 and seems to be taking a wait-and-see approach to upgrading hardware,'' said IDC analyst Gabrielle Griffith. The U.S. market was well below the worldwide growth rate, with unit shipments expanding only 7.2 percent over the year-ago quarter, IDC said. Copyright 2000 Reuters Limited. ====== <<<<<<

To: Mark Madden who wrote (8494)	7/24/2000 12:39:53 PM
From: LK2	Respond to of 9256

Mark, here is an example of why forecasting (supply and demand, prices, whatever) can be tricky. The example is for coffee prices, which seem to jump around even more than disk drive stocks. What's also interesting is the way the coffee sellers (Folgers, Maxwell House) were going to drop the price of coffee because of cheap coffee beans. Then, when coffee prices shot up recently, in a brief spike before falling back down to very cheap prices, Folgers and Maxwell House decided they couldn't drop the price of coffee, after all. Coffee prices are sticky when the coffee bean price drops. But coffee prices move much faster when the coffee bean price is rising. (I'm sure there's a fancy economic term for that, but it's just called making money.) Regards, Larry FOR PERSONAL USE ONLY >>>>> ===== biz.yahoo.com Monday July 24, 11:04 am Eastern Time Arabicas back from two-week round-trip ride on Brazil By Bruce Kamich NEW YORK, July 24 (Reuters) - Coffee prices have come full circle in two tumultuous weeks, having collapsed to a nine-month trough then soaring 46 percent on Brazil's frost only to return to their starting point on Monday. The key CSCE September coffee contract was down 11.75 cents at 84.90 cents a lb in Monday morning trade. On July 7, September coffee fell to a new contract low of 82.40 cents before closing at 83.40 cents. The fundamental outlook looked like a parade of bearish factors. Roasters were supposedly buying ``hand-to-mouth''. Folgers, owned by Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG - news), and Maxwell House, a unit of Philip Morris (NYSE:MO - news), had announced price cuts. A retention plan by the Association of Coffee Producing Countries (ACPC) got a mostly negative review from the trade. Weather Services Corp. (WSC) was forecasting temperatures in the Brazilian coffee belt in the 50s to low 60s F. Coffee stocks according to the Green Coffee Association (GCA) were at highs not seen since the middle of 1994. According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report, managed funds were net short as of June 27. Market conditions quickly changed when frost started battering Brazil. On July 10, the market kicked off a rally that would carry prices to 122.00 cents by the morning of July 18. It was a period with sharply higher or lower openings, shortcovering by managed funds and speculative buying of out-of-the-money call options and a hike in margin requirements by the exchange. Several frosts were reported in those two weeks and forecasts of damage to next year's crop brought in aggressive buying by locals, speculators and managed funds. In a weekly fundamental outlook report by analyst Arthur Stevenson of Prudential Securities, he said, ``Brazil was generally expected to produce a bumper harvest of 37-40 million bags in 2001/02, which clearly means that crop losses will have a relatively less severe impact on availability than had an average-size crop been projected.'' When frost failed to hit Brazil's key coffee areas on Monday, futures pretty much dove back to where they had started. Despite current price weakness, traders will likely still treat coffee as a weather market even though the latest forecast by WSC looks for ``dry conditions the next five days.'' ``Temperatures will be milder in all areas except possibly southern Minas Gerais on Tuesday,'' it said, adding lows will range from 37-50 F (3-10 C). The caution stems from the fact that winter does not end until late in August. Copyright 2000 Reuters Limited. ===== <<<<<

To: Mark Madden who wrote (8494)	7/25/2000 5:10:30 PM
From: Thomas DeGagne	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

Quantum releases earnings, comments please: biz.yahoo.com

To: Mark Madden who wrote (8494)	7/26/2000 3:56:20 PM
From: Thomas DeGagne	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

Mark I'm seeking your help as an expert in the disk drive industry. What is going on with Maxtor? Did HDD say something terrible during their conference call? Was there a negative analyst report on the industry as a whole? I hold MXTR, HDD and HMTT. VIXL too.

To: Mark Madden who wrote (8494)	7/27/2000 10:27:12 AM
From: Z Analyzer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

Mark, Three things puzzle me. First, any idea why your weekly tracking didn't pick up the severe price drop at the end of the qtr. Second, why didn't SEG give an indication of the desktop weakness. Three, with density increases running at a rate of maybe 150% annually, shouldn't costs per MB be able to drop 25% quarterly with the margins remaining flat. Perhaps they are talking about double digit price declines for a drive with the same number of platters? -Z