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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Koligman who wrote (158793)	7/24/2000 6:21:37 PM
From: hdl	Respond to of 176387

is dell a buy with a pe of 40?

To: John Koligman who wrote (158793)	7/24/2000 6:49:48 PM
From: Mike Van Winkle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

John Koligman re: Merrill cut revenue estimates on Dell today. Their new revenue numbers (31.2% growth) are still in line with Dell's guidance of 30% top line growth. They were projecting 33.8% growth. I wish I could project so accurately for the year. Best, Mike PS there is no Starbucks nearby, but it sure sounds like a good idea.

To: John Koligman who wrote (158793)	7/24/2000 7:45:35 PM
From: kaka	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 176387

John, Re: Merrill cut revenue estimates on Dell today The revenue cut sort of reminds me of the February 1999 revenue cut. Dell still has not recovered form that. The board can crunch the numbers till their blue; the can parse the words of management; they can look at photos all night long. The irrefutable fact is that unless you traded the fluctuations, DELL's stock price has been a dog for 18 months. If DELL grows earnings 30%, and, as some say, WILL grow its stock price in tandem 30%, the price needs to go to 66 (I'm using a beginning price of 51 since this is where DELL close out 1999-I know DELL's fiscal year is different). 66??? Not in a very long time. All the truck bays, new buildings, talk of 92 cents, analysts upgrades, feel good sounding words like tremendous and phenomenal, and market share, and DELL Knows How E-Works, couldn't move the stock in the past, but an IDC report and revenue warning topples the stock over 11%. Feeling sick, Kaka

To: John Koligman who wrote (158793)	7/25/2000 11:43:32 AM
From: mepci	Respond to of 176387

Big deal: What if the revenue drops 3%. Earnings is what I will be more worried about. I will still maintain .90 or almost 50% over last year's .61

To: John Koligman who wrote (158793)	7/25/2000 12:09:27 PM
From: D.J.Smyth	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 176387

John, Merrill's view doesn't quite add up: ...15:07 ET Dell Computer (DELL) 46 9/16 -5 13/16 (-11.1%): --Update-- After performing checks, Merrill Lynch feels it appropriate to cut revenue estimates; firm lowers Q2 view to $7.75 bln from $7.942 bln Dell reported $6.142 billion in revenue last year 2nd qtr. Dell stated during the ASM that Enterprise sales were growing at a 50% clip. Using those figures and Dataquest numbers we arrive at the following: 99 2Q PC sales $3.685 billion (60%) 99 2Q Enterprise Sales (16%) $980 million 99 2Q Laptop Sales $1.474 billion DataQuest/IDC numbers Expected Growth 2Q PC sales, 22% (no guidance offered other than "continued strong sell through") $4.495 ($3.685 X 1.22) Expected Growth 2Q Enterprise sales, 50% (per Dell at ASM) $1.470 billion Expected Growth 2Q Laptop sales, 30% (per ASM - "about the same growth rate as last qtr.") $1.916 billion Total Expected Revenue from these three categories: $7.9 billion So, apparently, Fortuna is lowering his numbers relative to Dataquest/IDC and ignoring the guidance offered by Dell at the ASM. Thus, if Dell sticks to its projected 50% growth in Enterprise and 30% growth in Laptop sales; any number above 22% growth for PCs (I clearly expect their PC growth to be greater than 22% due to the lag) would put Dell over $8 billion for the qtr. Going from $6.142 bill to $8 billion would represent at least a 30% increase in revenue. Given the much stronger earnings ratio/mix on servers, Dell could well post $.23 in earnings. Dell's market cap is now $40 billion less than SUNW's, yet it's overall revenue growth rate remains equal to SUNW's. Although SUNW has posted a near 50% increase in profit, Dell's shift to Enterprise and Storage will help yield higher profit margins for Dell in the future as well.