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To: bonnuss_in_austin who wrote (26600)	7/25/2000 9:16:22 PM
From: Sully-	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 35685

bia, JDSU's departure will affect the entire S&P 500 per Pisani. JDSU's market cap is displacing a tiny one, so the whole index will need rebalanced somewhat significantly. RAD's market cap was tiny, thus a small S&P weighting & no apples to apples swap. I'm terrible at timing a stock for a day trade. I think that Pisani showed the potential for a JDSU sell off tomorrow, but he hedged it a little. Keep in mind he said that 158 million shares were bought since the announcement of JDSU inclusion into the S&P. He said the run up after the announcement obviously included a considerable number of folks buying with the intention of selling to the index funds tomorrow. He also worked in the double counting issue (hedge), so potentially that could make it 80 million shares or so (probably more like 100 - 120 mil). Keep in mind that some folks bought during that period & intend to hold for the long run. I'm sure there was a lot of buy/write folks too as call premiums were enticing - they will hold the underlying..... for now. The index funds must buy 53 million shares of JDSU. How many folks will be speculating it will go up & buy some tomorrow? (look at BRCM the day it went in - FWIW, I believe Pisani said their might be too many folks looking to sell BRCM to the funds - it sold off right after that report but it ended the day up big if I recall correctly) How many will short speculating there is an oversupply based on Pisani's report? Now factor in that there should be a lot of selling pressure on the S&P 500 IF they must rebalance their entire portfolio tomorrow too. Will that cause speculators to short the S&P 500? Will that affect JDSU too? Now my brain hurts. I think too much to be good at day trades :-( oof Tim

To: bonnuss_in_austin who wrote (26600)	7/25/2000 9:24:21 PM
From: Clappy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 35685

Bonnie, Have you looked at the charts of NT and BRCM to see how they reacted after the inclusion to the S&P 500? Perhaps JDSU will behave in a similar fashion. I don't know the dates, but I'm sure a little investigative research could get an answer. Could be a lot of heavy trading. Fallout may happen afterwards. Their chart has a few indicators pointing to sell. They also have a big gap to be filled. Who knows... RMBS looks like they could have their hands full repairing FUD. They don't have much support underneath them according to their chart. -Clappy

To: bonnuss_in_austin who wrote (26600)	7/26/2000 8:18:57 AM
From: im a survivor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 35685

<<shorting jdsu>> Who know's...maybe you get a great one or two day play. But the kep phrase is "who knows". With that in mind, I think it takes a steal set of balls to short a gorilla like jdsu. What your doing, as VOLT says, is playing the casino...trying to time a one time event, which is difficult to do. As I said, who know's...maybe you do get a nice short for the day, but then again, what if they blowout numbers and announce a split or something...could be over $150 in a blink. Again, my point is "who knows" what will happen til afterwards, and I personally would not want to be short a stock that has been as hot as JDSU simply because a one time event may bring it sown some....and may not. If I had to guess, I would agree and say that jdsu comes down some...but thats just a guess, and all my steel balls allowed me to do was cover the rest of my jdsu with Aug 150's. I did this when jdsu was at 136 - 138, and I got 10 5/8 for the calls I wrote. Good luck keith@whatamessedupmarketthisis.com