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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Captain Jack who wrote (83811)	7/26/2000 11:14:33 PM
From: profile_14	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97611

CJ, you know I am long but I am also weary of the market. Each time Compaq reports it goes up, and then it goes down. Not because of Compaq, but because of the mentality of the investors and traders associated with the Company. As each report improves, the resilience of the stock also improves because of the quality of investors that the stock is attracting with the better news, in my opinion. I still think that there is a chance for another downswing given the Nasdaq at this level and the Fed meeting later in August. Why should this time be any different? Having said that, I may sell August 27.5 calls if there is another rise early tomorrow, only to eat into the time premium and intrinsic value if the stock drifts a tad, which would not surprise me. As far as opportunities go, I was pleased to see Compaq keep its price up, despite every other issue getting knocked down on decent earnings today (e.g., NT and LSI) -- not that they were not overpriced. God forbid this happens to CSCO on 8/8. I am eager to hear Dell's story of what they are going to say to justify diminishing margins. Notice how every quarter the revenues increase but the EPS is constant with the same quarter of the previous year? Separately, even my CTXS was up today for the first time in a string of days. I thought I was being clever in reducing my CTXS basis by 2 bucks (approx. 10%) in 10 days by writing the July 20's when the stock was at 19 and change right before I went on vacation. I then watched it go to nearly 25 with the calls still having a buck of premium with 2 days to expiration (crazy) and feeling lousy because I knew I did not want to buy them back and roll forward for the next month with the same kind of premium. It then dropped immediately below 20 (at which point I felt like a genius, because I was now going to keep the stock and the premium) but it continued dropping to where it is now, near 16 (my basis is about 21.5 today since I bought some in the days before the earnings warning at 51 and 42). Have not written calls there for this month yet since the stock is too low -- will wait for the next pop to figure out my next move. The consolation is that there seems to be some accumulation going on at these levels and that the stock is volatile (giving me a whip lash since I had grown accustomed to Compaq). Lehman's $15 target when the stock was at $22 did not help either. Talk about manipulation.... I still find it a steal here but will need to learn its patterns and confirm a bottom. Don't expect to see the old 122 highs but 50% or a double by January would be nice -- too fast I know, but still like to think about it. Reminds me of when I bought Ciena at 13 5/8. In the meantime, will keep writing those calls and trading the heck out of it. Later and regards,