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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark Fowler who wrote (106649)	7/28/2000 4:37:31 AM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Hi all; Is it time for old bears to drop by and gloat? Nearly one year ago, I posted predictions for the following 18 months worth of AMZN revenues. These were done using a simple mathematical technique, but it didn't work out too badly. Here's the results so far (thousands of dollars): Period Prediction Actual Error 3Q99 $356579 $355777 0% 4Q99 508314 676042 -33% 1Q00 522684 573889 -9% 2Q00 503003 577876 -14% 3Q00 520605 4Q00 705623 "The AMZN story is that the current losses are of no great importance, and that they are instead building a market. What is important, instead, is the growth rate in the revenue of the company. I, and most of the other shorts on this thread, believe that the growth of AMZN is a lot closer to being finished than the longs, and that the recent quarter's results are supportive of our belief. There has been some suggestion on this thread that AMZN's recent quarter's results were not really comparable to the previous quarter's reseults due to seasonality. The purpose of this note is to analyze AMZN's revenue numbers with this caveat in mind. In other words, I am going to look at the revenue series in ways that will eliminate seasonality effects." #reply-10755819 It looks like I was a little low, but not too shabby considering that AMZN was growing at 171% year over year at the time I made the post. My biggest error was when they did all the Christmas specials in 4Q99. -- Carl

To: Mark Fowler who wrote (106649)	7/28/2000 11:26:30 AM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

Mark, I tried to place a stop loss on-line at 38 also. I receive a note that stop and stop limit loss is for listed securities only? Apparently they mean on the NYSE. Is that normal?

To: Mark Fowler who wrote (106649)	7/28/2000 1:17:14 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Thanks Mark, as you know I am fundamentals only - I happen to think all of software is not attractive right now, I use commerce one as my indicator. When commerce one started approaching its April lows even after the huge upside in b2b this qtr I bailed on any software trading stocks and kept my LT's so thats it for me for now. Having said that, fundamentally things are changing a little in software and I'm looking to invest in that. B2b + b2bi is replacing a lot of the old supply chain logistics stuff that I2 used to do, in other words, the extended supply chain is opening up. BEA, Ariba, C1, Webmethods are in the middle of this as well as some stuff from IBM (websphere?) and a few other EAI players if they can get outside the firewall. So I'm not really looking at BEA for their weblogic server that competes with Broadvision or Vignette - its good but that market is saturated, its the new stuff I care about, for next year. Of course it could decline 50% by then, I don't know.