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To: minorejoy2000 who wrote (26211)	7/28/2000 5:07:37 PM
From: Atin	Respond to of 42787

Mino, if you really believe in these companies and really are not going to sell at any cost, you shouldn't be reading what anybody on a thread says (including me), regardless of whether we're being encouraging or discouraging! By their very nature, threads are prone to short term predictions and short term trading. If you have companies you believe in strongly, and I mean because you think that their business models and markets and ability are sound, you buy them on dips, you buy when it hurts, you buy when fear is running amok on the streets! You'll be closer to the bottom if nothing else! But remember, you only buy the stocks you think are going to be around in your long term time frame. A chart analysis doesn't tell you that. Market analysis, fundamental analysis etc do. It is all about homework. That said, you may want to diversify slightly even in technology. You're very highly leveraged to the internet infrastructure. If that is what you want to leverage yourself to long term, you might want to look at IAH and BDH -- holders that are baskets of these stocks that trade like stocks. You get diversified just because they are baskets, though you are leveraged more to the high fliers due to their market caps. Good luck, -Atin

To: minorejoy2000 who wrote (26211)	7/28/2000 6:16:58 PM
From: Terry Whitman	Respond to of 42787

A friend of mine who I play softball with asked me a month or so ago how he could learn how to trade on the internet. He'd never even bought a stock before thru a full serv. broker or any other way. I told him to "Stay away from the market. Even long time veterans have been doing poorly for some time- and interest rates are rising, which never bodes well for stocks." Too late for you-You shouldn't have that much money in high beta stocks if you can't sleep at night. The only words of encouragement I can offer is: "The longer a trend has been in place, the more likely it is to reverse." -g- Regards, TW

To: minorejoy2000 who wrote (26211)	7/29/2000 2:20:59 PM
From: Chris	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42787

couple things: 1) first of all, you're very honest and it takes courage to post publicly about losses 2) you just started!! dont lose your capital. in my first year, i traded the small caps. I didn't make money that year. 3) Paper trade - trade on paper without money. i can give you my system, but if you can't follow it, then it wont work. 4) read more books! 5) what is your risk tolerance? if you are risk adverse or close to retirement, buy the "slow moving techs". sunw, csco, intc, etc. 6) start with the basics.. fibonacci is advanced TA that is subjective. 7) your mentality of "im not selling at a loss" is 100% wrong. I'm only 50-60% correct on my trades, but on those wrong trades -> cut loss. If you were 100%, then you can work on wallstreet and write a book <gg> keep posting.. in fact, i learned so much during those few months.

To: minorejoy2000 who wrote (26211)	7/29/2000 4:08:19 PM
From: Caxton Rhodes	Respond to of 42787

Can you say astronomical PE?

To: minorejoy2000 who wrote (26211)	7/30/2000 12:48:57 PM
From: Dave Shares	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42787

Minorejoy: This is my first post on this thread, an excellent thread I might add, one I am enjoying reading and learning from. I have been a relatively active trader for nearly two years. I have had some good times, followed by some awful times, and this year has been very good. I understand that you are an investor and not a trader, and so I will try to temper my unsolicited advice to you from an investment standpoint. Traders MUST preserve capital, and therefore MUST cut losses quickly. My biggest mistakes have been not taking a quick and small loss, my smartest trades have been getting out of losing trades quickly. I have learned the hard way that the next opportunity always lies around the corner, and to be stuck on a sinking ship precludes you from boarding the next ship that may be destined for paradise. Now to gear my words to one who is investing. First of all, in hindsight, you may have wanted to wait for an opportunity which seasonally offered a better opportunity for reward. Getting into the market in mid July, at least for the past few years, has not proven to be a good time to start. Some speak to the concept of dollar cost averaging, in other words, taking 1/12 of one's investment capital and putting that into the market each month, thereby averaging one's cost basis over time. Something to consider. Now what has really caused me to want to respond to your post is your feeling that you will not sell at any cost. When I read that, I was truly ALARMED. Investors should view the PRESERVATION OF CAPITAL no differently than traders, the only difference is that the threshhold of risk tolerance can be slightly higher with investors than with traders. Basically, one rule of thumb that I have seen used is that a trader should never risk more than 2% of his/her trading capital on a trade (personally, I set that threshhold much lower for myself, and yes, I get stopped out of many trades that turn around and become winners, but I try my best to minimize every loss - and still make more mistakes than I should). Investors are advised not to take more than a 7-8% loss on a particular investment. So if you buy a stock for $100, you should consider exiting the position if the stock goes below $92. Now some will argue that in the world of technology stocks, this is a close stop and could be triggered in a day. Well, if I was investing, I would rather take the 8% loss and move on, even if the stock went back up, then watch my stock move even lower. Here is why, and it is based on simple mathematics. Let's take that $100 stock, and let us assume that the stock takes a 20% dip and moves to $80 and you are still holding it. In order for that stock to make it back to $100, your stock has to go back up by 25%, more than the 20% that it declined by. If the stock had gotten a 50% haircut and had been marked down to $50, now you need a double (100% increase) to get back to even. The bigger the drop, the more the increase to get back even. If the stock had dipped to $93 (7% decrease), it would have to go back up by 7.5% to get back even, not much of a difference. To me, this is why even an investor needs to be VERY CAREFUL about MANAGING RISK. Do not feel bad if you sell at a loss. You will get another chance, believe me. I have seen my trading portfolio double at one time, only to go down to 25% of its original value, and bounce back from that level to 400% of its original value, and this is a roller coaster that has occured over less than 2 years. I have also managed to take an investment portfolio and run it down to 40% of its original value and take it back up to 140% of its original value. If you are CAREFUL, you will do fine. But in my opinion, the biggest part of being careful is to PRESERVE CAPITAL and the only way to PRESERVE CAPITAL is to MINIMIZE LOSSES. I wish you the best of luck, and I am sure you will do great. Thanks for the opportunity to post here amongst some excellent contributors, I have really enjoyed reading the posts here. David

To: minorejoy2000 who wrote (26211)	7/31/2000 7:18:03 AM
From: SirRealist	Respond to of 42787

minorejoy: >>>>No selling (too scared to trade now), just accumulation.<< >>I am NOT SELLING at any cost! << While I agree with the responses you've gotten thus far (longs require homework and picking excellent companies), I thought it might be useful to note (no rudeness meant) that those two statements are not original. Almost every trader I've known that has taken blows of 50%-100% in tech stocks, were the ones with that same approach. I do understand how longterm holding works. But I believe, with tech stocks, the speed of change and innovation limits the number of longs available who will prove themselves capable of growing for the next 2 to 10 years. Maybe 1 out of 20 will do so; maybe 1 out of 50 will provide stellar returns. I am well acquainted with capital gains rules, too, and I'm not thrilled with 39.1% tax rates or the wash rule (the latter can be worked around some, though). But I would say, given the potential for occasional times of losses exceeding 40%, there are ALWAYS times when it's far more reasonable to sell & sell. My advice? Not only are you heavily weighted in tech, but in internet. Diversify. Add some wireless, biotech, chips, alternate energy, software. In most cases, don't do what a broker says; very, very few are sufficiently objective & wise with their advice. And learn to buy at bottoms, not tops. It appears you entered the mkt right near the peak. Had you bought around next week, you'd see greater returns faster... and likely will still if you sell your entire portfolio and rebuy then. Looking at annual NASDAQ charts, it's not hard to discern where probable bottoms will occur... most are heavily influenced by earnings seasons. In most years, mid January, mid April, the day before Memorial Day weekend, mid August and mid October.... those are the best times that long traders can pick to buy. And do try to avoid the use of that term "never", however you say it. Because, if you gained the insight to sense that a major mkt crash was about to occur... like 1929 or 1983 or 87, or even a severe correction like occurred in April ... simple math should tell you that selling sometimes makes way more sense than anything else. I wish you the best (and btw, most of your selections look good and solid).