Hi, Mike - I've been reading with great interest the trialogue between Iml, Ali, and you. I offer the following comments from a different perspective, as regards the possible evolution of the whole question regarding STBs, TV (analogue or digital) broadcasting, and content.
I start, always, from the premise that almost all present solutions will be displaced by FTTH, using all digital (packet) technology.
"For fixed bandwidth, FTTH would almost certainly provide the solution - and that solution is achievable now - but at very high cost. There is potentially enough bandwidth there to simultaneously satisfy all conceivable needs in entertainment or communication. Nothing else even comes close."
Message 12997907
In the Toronto area initially, and later in other areas of Canada, an ISP called Look has begun a wireless service. It provides a bundle of local TV stations, and duplex Internet connection, at (I think) 1.5 Mbps. It is a hybrid RF solution powered by Cisco technology.
However, as I sit here in Vancouver using my @home connection, I can, by using RealPlayer, listen to a country and western station in Texas, if I want. Lord knows how, in future, they will account for that in advertising revenue! Presumably that feature is available to Look subscribers; I don't see why not.
My point is that the only limitations to one getting whatever content one desires, through one's ISP, are cost, bandwidth, and availability. While a STB may not contain enough 'intelligence' at present, to implement the options you can activate with your computer, surely that option is coming.
There is technology on the boards to give RF data transmission rates, after overhead, of ~ 90 Mbps; yet that rate, and even the most optimistic DSL rates, will not deliver 'true' full-quality digital video, as it leaves the studio. Yet, it is more than adequate to deliver two or three streams of MPEG-2 video. I have a friend who films with the new $150K digital cameras, and their appetite for bandwidth is enormous. It seems that the capability of transmitting true DTV/movies, in their uncompressed format, on the 'net, will be reserved for fiber.
That argues for any present implementation being, to some degree, 'lossy'. If that is the case, then the question becomes: "What is 'good enough'?"
However, Mike, I think one can argue a case that the dilatory and troublesome connections offered by DSL and @Home will soon be threatened by wireless implementations. These will offer, in many cases, superior bandwidth. When that happens, TV, analogue or digital, will be offered in direct competition to existing distribution channels.
I guess my POV is an argument favoring 'convergence' - that the content, and the STB, will come from your ISP, if not now, certainly when FTTH becomes ubiquitous. Until that happens, it may be that only wireless will supply the requisite bandwidth for the type of quality offered by DBS system, say. When ISPs start competing to provide that service, price points will drop, IMO
(Late edit - Boiled down, the argument is that the present structure, including STBs, will be vastly different in 5 years)
Regards,
Jim |
