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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (38719)	8/1/2000 9:17:15 AM
From: active22	Respond to of 77398

One hell of a post, makes me wish I were so literate and patient. I agree with you, thanks for posting.

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (38719)	8/1/2000 9:33:07 AM
From: TigerPaw	Respond to of 77398

I can't even recognize a bubble much less predict one, so I have to go with what worked for me in the past. What has worked is to invest in good growth companies. Some grow better than others and they grow spectacularly. The real risk is not owning them. I'm sure some day Cisco will dissapoint (as Dell & Msft have done in the past) but I'm still better off having stayed invested until they dissapoint than I would have been getting out even a year early. Of course if I could pick the absolute top and bottom I would never be disappointed. TP

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (38719)	8/1/2000 10:09:56 AM
From: The Phoenix	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 77398

John, Good post. Just one point - which I don't believe changes the content of your post much. PE's are stated usually as trailing numbers and therefore don't account for earnings growth all that well. If we look at FY00 year end PE it'll probably end up at around 120 - still high by historical measures. FY01 PE is 87. The one other thing to consider - a point I've attempted to make with a few TM's is that PE are no longer a good measure of stock valuations since they are rooted in history and one is therefore compelled to measure today's PE's against historical measures. This however doesn't work becuase the large increases in retail investors and 401K makes the market for stocks (and the supply/demand characteristics of these investment instruments) a more significant issue. That is to say valuations based on returns are less of an issue than they once were. I know this is herasy but the fact is retirement dollars are competing for a finite asset pool and thus prices are bid up beyond what would seem "normal" from a historical view. Of course this may not last but I can tell you from first hand knowldege I never thought I'd see a tract home in San Jose go for $1M and now many do. OG

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (38719)	8/1/2000 6:31:15 PM
From: The Other Analyst	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77398

If future stock prices could be estimated by extrapolating from past stock price trends......well, let's just say that is actually not how the market works. You need to look into the future and divine markets, prices, costs, competition, technology trends, and other stuff. If you don't want to do that, then I recommend a good library with a large history collection for you.