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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JDN who wrote (29181)	8/1/2000 11:40:46 AM
From: willkm3	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 54805

Hello to all. This is my first post on the thread. Thank you to the elders for their work and openness in sharing ideas. I've been lurking here since Apr, which is when I bought TRFM. (Wish I'd known about it sooner!) Since Apr I've read all Moore's books except "Crossing the Chasm". (It is next) Now, to why I posted at all. Last night I was reading tekboys excellent series of posts on the Photonic Revolution. In "Part II: DWDM" the following comments are made regarding future bandwidth and scalability of fiber strands, and seem relevent to the Global Crossings debate. ********************************************************* "DWDM is dense wave division multiplexing. Prior to DWDM, the capacity of an individual strand of fiber was the capacity of the one channel on that strand. That bandwidth is already considerable and growing larger, with current OC-192 fiber delivering 10 gbps and next generation OC-768 fiber delivering 40 gbps (the OC numbers ramp in tandem with transmission capacity; ie a quadrupling of the OC # from 192 to 768 is synonymous with a quadrupling of capacity). But DWDM greatly increased fiber's capacity by allowing for multiple channels on one strand of fiber. These individual channels represent different wavelengths, each wavelength having the same potential bandwidth. So an OC-192 fiber strand with 10 gpbs capacity can be increased to 400 gpbs capacity with a 40-channel DWDM system. It is this technology that drives the scalability of fiber networks discussed in Robert V. Green's brief yesterday. It is extremely expensive to bury a conduit containing fiber strands, but once it is buried, it is relatively easy to "blow" new strands through the conduit and easier still to add channels to each strand by employing DWDM technology. For the core of the telecommunications network, also known as long-haul transmission, DWDM is an obvious choice to meet soaring bandwidth demand." "Nortel's high-end DWDM system delivers up to 320 gbps with 32 channel DWDM on OC-192 fiber." "...Lucent's WaveStar OLS 400G optical networking system delivers up to 400 gbps capacity with 40 OC-192 channels." "...Ciena's MultiWave CoreStream is capable of 480 gpbs on 48 OC-192 channels. "Lucent is already talking about a system that will produce 800 gbps bandwidth early in 2001, and its Bell Labs arm has announced a successful test of a 3.28 terabit (tbps) system. NEC has also said that it will have a 3.2 tbps system available in 2001 with an 80 channel OC-768 product." ********************************************************* My thought is that even though it is expensive to lay future cable the massive increases in the bandwidth of that cable make it less expensive on a per lambda or per gbps basis. Like a Moore's Law on steroids. Any thoughts? Regards, willkm3 I hope following post meets the high standards of this thread.