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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dave-in-MarinCa who wrote (610)	8/1/2000 9:21:09 PM
From: MrGreenJeans	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

Dave Well, he makes a pretty good living for his words. And his profile and testimonials are genuine. I value the SI posts that bring new thoughts on the markets and financial world in general. And question those that have a "corner on truth". Of course, we all have our own opinions and must make our own decisions. My best wishes to you in whatever decision you choose going forward. I would have been more impressed if he had laid out his case with facts and hard numbers without those present arguments lose validity. He may have them at hand but did not apply them in the excerpt. Further, there are better known Fed watchers who have put their opinions on the line for many years right or wrong whose opinions I value more differing from mine or not. I suspect, but you did not state explicitly, that you think the Fed will raise rates in August. I just don't see it. Greenspan, in his testimony, has all but told the world he is on hold in August. The most recent data indicates some economic moderation. The unemployment number will probably not come in extremely strong or rather the number will probably be spun weak or strong depending on how the numbers are stripped out. The recent GDP number shows increases due to business investments in high technology areas. Some see the 5.2% GDP increase showing economic growth too strong going forward while others see the increase in business investment as an indicator of stronger productivity down the road tempering inflation. Some see the inventory number as goods about to be sold while others see the number as goods perhaps being stacked up indicating an economic slowdown. I see it as the latter thus no rate increase. I suspect Greenspan sees it the same way. The spending and income numbers reinforce this view in my paradigm. I sense that part of the problem on this thread is that people are trying to support a Bob Brinker view of the world which at the moment is bearish. Bob may be correct; based on the data I am not totally convinced. What are your thoughts on the aforementioned?