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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Logain Ablar who wrote (2554)	8/2/2000 9:31:23 PM
From: Doppler	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 33421

Hi Tim and C- The gentleman's name is Dr. William Gray from Colorado St. He pretty much pioneered long range hurricane forecasting. This year he expects 11 Tropical Storms, 7 of which are expected to become hurricanes. 3 of those, he predicts, will become intense (major CAT 3-5) storms. That is a bit above the long term average, but not as active as recent years. One thing to remember though. Hurricane Andrew occured during one of the slowest hurricane seasons in history, but try telling the people of S. Fla that it was a good year. Consequently, 1996 was one of the busiest years ever and nearly every storm that year took a path between Bermuda and the East coast and curved harmlessly out to sea. In general his skill level has been increasing over the years as he refines the technique. There are a few things to be noted however. Part of this years forecast is based on La Nina weakening in the Pacific. There is some debate going on right now as to the current state of La Nina. A change in SST's out there could have a major impact on his forecast. Some of his biggest busts have come because of changing El Nino/La Nina conditions. In general we are certainly in a period of enhanced activity. West African rainfall is entering a cycle of relative wetness that should last years. The North American Osillation and the Atlantic conveyor belt also would seem to indicate more activity. Having said all that, keep in mind that unlike the day to day forecasts when some meteorologist are 95% accurate <vbg>, hurricane forecasts are about the most difficult challenge we face. The percentages for this year indicate a 39% probability of at least 1 East coast landfall versus a historical ave of 31%. Gulf coast odds are 34% vs ave of 30%. One good thing for CT and the rest of the East Coast though, would be the summer long pattern of a trough in the east (ie jet stream from Canada dipping over NE) that is why it has been a cool summer. If that pattern holds, that would tend to put protective cold fronts in the way of any approaching storms here in the east.